Good god, pay attention to the world around you people.
1> different kinds of businesses do well in recessions vs. boom years. adapt your start up plans to be "countercyclical."
If you're not sure what kinds of businesses are countercyclical, are you sure you're old enough to be doing this?
2> prioritize international markets. capital bleeding out of the US because of inflation and currency shrinkage is going somewhere. those people are your customers too.
3> Flint, Michigan. Yes, it can happen here. Entire classes of businesses can just vanish. Programming jobs go abroad eventually (yes, yes they do - your professors are not the only smart Indians, Chinese, Japanese, Russians, Koreans, Israelis etc. in the world.) Which business are you in? Being smart guys? Or serving a particular customer base better than your immigrant professor's cousin who stayed at home can?
Do a bit of reading about the Great Depression. Now re-run that, maybe 50% as extreme, but this time with the internet. Where would you like to have been positioned in 1927 or 1928 to survive in good shape?
If you want a closer example, examine the Argentine Economic Collapse (1999).
We don't know that is going to happen but it's a scenario that should be examined in your mind because if a funder asks you "so what's your plan if the dollar drops to be 20% of it's current value against the Euro and the Yen?" the answer should not be "what are you talking about?"
In short: get beyond marketing to the American consumer, because there's a 5%-15% possibility that they're going to be entirely wiped out within the next couple of years. Think Former Soviet Union style conditions (relative to where we are even now.) Now try to imagine keeping your business going. Note the percentages - I don't think this is what will happen, but I'd say it's improbable-but-possible.
As a business person, it's a systemic risk that your business plan should take into account. If it doesn't, you're still in the little leagues, assuming that the relatively stable economic conditions that have prevailed during most of your life time are baseline reality. They aren't - that's summer. Winter may be just around the corner. Say 1 in 6 or less.
By the way, I also do children's parties, weddings and Bar Mitzvahs.
If you're going to consider the possibility that the U.S. economy will go into a full-fledged collapse, you should also consider:
1.) The possibility of large tariffs on all international transactions.
2.) The possibility that certain nations will be declared "enemy powers" and all trade with them will be banned.
3.) The possibility that all communications outside the United States (yes, that means the Internet) will be banned for national security reasons.
4.) The possibility that the government will nationalize the Internet, your business, or both.
5.) The possibility of riots in major U.S. cities.
6.) The possibility that a mandatory draft may send you or your workforce to war.
7.) The possibility of mass propaganda campaigns and government nationalization of all media.
8.) The possibility that all computer professionals will be drafted into massive cryptographic projects.
All of these have happened historically after major economic crises. They almost seem to be inevitable after a Depression-level panic.
My point is that some eventualities shouldn't be planned for, not because they won't happen, but because you can't plan for them. Once political unrest starts, all bets are off, because the basic ground rules of society are gone. Some looter could come up to you with a gun and blow your brains out, and that would be the end of your business.
1> different kinds of businesses do well in recessions vs. boom years. adapt your start up plans to be "countercyclical."
If you're not sure what kinds of businesses are countercyclical, are you sure you're old enough to be doing this?
2> prioritize international markets. capital bleeding out of the US because of inflation and currency shrinkage is going somewhere. those people are your customers too.
3> Flint, Michigan. Yes, it can happen here. Entire classes of businesses can just vanish. Programming jobs go abroad eventually (yes, yes they do - your professors are not the only smart Indians, Chinese, Japanese, Russians, Koreans, Israelis etc. in the world.) Which business are you in? Being smart guys? Or serving a particular customer base better than your immigrant professor's cousin who stayed at home can?
Do a bit of reading about the Great Depression. Now re-run that, maybe 50% as extreme, but this time with the internet. Where would you like to have been positioned in 1927 or 1928 to survive in good shape?
If you want a closer example, examine the Argentine Economic Collapse (1999).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_economic_crisis_(1999-2002) - you will have to cut and paste that link, including the bracketed dates.
We don't know that is going to happen but it's a scenario that should be examined in your mind because if a funder asks you "so what's your plan if the dollar drops to be 20% of it's current value against the Euro and the Yen?" the answer should not be "what are you talking about?"
In short: get beyond marketing to the American consumer, because there's a 5%-15% possibility that they're going to be entirely wiped out within the next couple of years. Think Former Soviet Union style conditions (relative to where we are even now.) Now try to imagine keeping your business going. Note the percentages - I don't think this is what will happen, but I'd say it's improbable-but-possible.
As a business person, it's a systemic risk that your business plan should take into account. If it doesn't, you're still in the little leagues, assuming that the relatively stable economic conditions that have prevailed during most of your life time are baseline reality. They aren't - that's summer. Winter may be just around the corner. Say 1 in 6 or less.
By the way, I also do children's parties, weddings and Bar Mitzvahs.