Fighting for share of the pie in the Android market would have created far more sales than fighting for crumbs of a virtually non-existent pie in the Windows market.
Having said that, I agree with your final point. If you view the whole thing as a setup to extract maximum value via an acquisition, it might make sense. They may have been worth more as a MS acquisition target selling Windows phones than they would have been had they gone down the Android path.
It's entirely possible that neither path would have led to sustainability as a standalone entity.
Release 3310 in smartphone world. With their strong brand they could create another indestructible phone in smartphone era that would sell for $199.
The specs could be weak, as long as it would be easy, durable and fast for regular users.
Nokia 3310 was phone for regular users. Phone that could drop, had few games, allowed you to download some ringtones.
Strong battery, good screen, water/shock proof. Put 8GB memory plus one SD slot, some ok-ish processor and 2GB ram (so it wont age after 1 year) + make put really good battery. No ridiculous screen resolutions, fingerprint readers etc - just durable smartphone for regular user.
With specs like that they might break even - but for sure they would steal european and growing APAC regions easy. Once they would get back they would release business versions that would help them to correct their profitability. Its not difficult for such a strong brand like Nokia. I was amazed how Scandinavian way of thinking (simplicity) vanished from the company.
If Nokia could deliver mentioned phone - I would use it for sure.
CAT is not Nokia. Nostalgia after Nokia in Europe is HUGE. I know that majority of my friends is vouching for old ways Nokia was doing business and they still believe that if Nokia could create 3310 smartphone way - they would go all in.
I don't think it's possible to roll back the clock like that. Nokia's Windows phones weren't that bad. Very well built, as far as I know. Yet no one bought them, so clearly there's a limit to what the brand alone could carry.
I think it is safe to say they had at least a slice of Windows Phone leaving the others to fight over the crumbs. With Windows Phone at around 4% of the market Nokia had most of that. The question then is could they have grabbed 5% of the Android market.
A small correction: They weren't fighting for the crumbs of Windows Phone, they were eating the whole pie (save a small slice for HTC and a tiny sliver for Samsung).
Having said that, I agree with your final point. If you view the whole thing as a setup to extract maximum value via an acquisition, it might make sense. They may have been worth more as a MS acquisition target selling Windows phones than they would have been had they gone down the Android path.
It's entirely possible that neither path would have led to sustainability as a standalone entity.