A billion downloads, not a billion users. If there are only 200 million users and they kept up with 1 point release in 5 then you'd already have a billion downloads.
Firefox already uses bsdiff to generate binary diffs for update distribution. Courgette looks like a promising way to shrink those updates even further. (Details in the discussion linked from: https://bugzilla.mozilla.org/show_bug.cgi?id=504624)
I can't find a reference, but I think the "one billion" count only counts full downloads; updates installed via "Check for updates" aren't included in the count.