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Mt. Gox – Business Plan 2014-2017 [pdf] (scribd.com)
67 points by julespitt on Feb 27, 2014 | hide | past | favorite | 46 comments


>Strengths

>Technical expertise of Mark Karpeles, CEO of Mtgox, as a leader in network security, systems development, and cryptocurrency.

Clearly.

>Mark is a young technopreneur with more than 15 years experience ins oftware development, network administration and entrepreneurship. Mark is well-versed in multiple programming languages, has a strong background in network security, and is well-known in the tech community.

That last part is certainly true now.


This is a fantasy. Mark is quite likely going to jail for a very long time, along with at least some of his fellow staff members. At market value they are something like $400 million in debt.

This ridiculous idea that the world can't live without Mt. Gox, which has been clearly communicated in both this document and the previously leaked crisis memo, shows signs of serious narcissism in whomever is behind them. Whatever PR/political damage their crisis has inflicted upon Bitcoin has already been done and could not be reversed even if they were saved. These executives should spend more time trying to find non-extradition countries that will take them and less time living in fantasy land.


You can't go to jail for losing $400 million, you can go to jail for stealing it. You are implying that he has committed a some real crime beyond incompetence?


Depends on which theory or report we accept as truth at the moment, but it also sounds like there could be negligence involved - and that can be prosecuted.

I'm sure there are some AG's and Prosecutors frothing at the mouth right now to get there hands on Mr. Karpeles.

Edit: Even if the judicial system doesn't get MK... his life is probably ruined at this point if he cannot recover the funds - either because of reputation or personal safety. Bitcoin is the Wild West and there seem to quite a few shady and nefarious actors within the community.


losing the money was not the crime, trying to cover it up and engage in dubious practices like using customer fiat funds to shore up your company, buy btc (on gox at $150) to sell on other exchanges (bitstamp at $500) is likely to be the root of their legal woes not that they wer ehacked and lost 750k coins.

Their cover up is what will bring legal repercussions.


I have no idea how accurate this is, but Mark seemed to believe they were "operating within the law":

"Karpeles replied that the matter is “confidential,” adding that the company had discussed its business model with Japanese authorities “to ensure that we are operating within the law here.”"


That sounds plausible. If they did cover it up, then I can see fraud charges. But if they were just stupid...


You can't for incompetence, but you sure as hell can for fraud.


Incompetence that borders on negligence can certainly be prosecuted.


Negligence that leads to bodily harm, ya; but negligence that leads to monetary losses is probably a civil rather than criminal matter. It depends on the jurisdiction for sure, some developing world countries might see it as criminal.


> At market value they are something like $400 million in debt

I haven't followed that closely because I don't particularly care about MtGox aside from popcorn value, but I'm not sure how you would know that from the information that's currently public. As far as we know we kind of think we know the number of bitcoins they lost, but not the amount of cash/btc assets they still have.

Or did I miss something?


mostly the numbers are coming from this "leaked" document. whether it's authentic or not is a separate issue.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/209050732/MtGox-Situation-Crisis-S...

look at the "financial assets and liabilities" section.

32,430,000 usd + 2,000 btc held, vs 55,000,000 usd + 744,408 btc owed.


Oh right, so if those numbers are correct they're heavily insolvent even if they somehow managed to write off the btc owed. I'd been wondering about that.

This starts to remind me of the whole SCO vs Linux thing.


This document seems like fairly conclusive evidence that they've lost access to >700,000 bitcoins, because there's no reason for them to spend time putting together the document otherwise.


It looks like they won't die without a fight. I don't think they're coming back from this one though. Unless they repay everyone and have a good explanation as to what the past week is all about I'm pretty sure Mt.Gox has ruined it's image ( if it had one haha..).


It's looking like the document was meant to sucker in new investment so they could continue to hide their insolvency and keep the ponzi scheme going.


hard to say when no one really knows what 'this one' even is.

of course this whole thing creates a loss of faith in the exchange, but if they somehow restored all the accounts I bet people would be willing to forget about it pretty quickly..

I, however, believe that to be unlikely given their response to the situation.


Gems:

> 2.6 Key to Success

> Security: MtGox has a solid IT infrastructure, protected from DDOS attacks and hackers by a number of security providers and we continue to develop several customized security features for customers in order to protect their account.

> Speed: MtGox runs an highly efficient trading engine that will compete enormously against the capabilities of our competitors. We will also develop more efficient fund transfer infrastructures to ensure that customers can send or receive money to/from their MtGox accounts within 3 business days.


This is about the only thing that comes to mind when I read things written by Mt Gox about their software, and IT:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1umbFOLztAw


Someone needs to run them through the difference between Weaknesses and Threats. They've got plenty of threats even if they make it through this and ignoring them in the SWOT is laughable.


How many employees did Mt. Gox have? This seems pretty polished for a company that I thought had ~10 employees.


I hadn't realized how much equity the CEO retained, 82%?. Am I interpreting this number wrong? This seems like as good of a reason as any to suspect either his team was grossly incompetent or significantly underpaid. Karpeles doesn't strike me as being a Zuckerberg, and you don't get to Mt. Gox market cap without giving up a little share to your collaborators.


>This seems pretty polished

Hmmmm, it looks like a standard MS Word template, nothing especially polished, nothing anyone with a proficiency in Word could not knock out.


This business plan looks more like a college kid in an ill-fitting suit and badly tied tie going for their first job interviews.


It seems they only have 1 (maybe 2) based on salary expenses. Everyone else is a contractor.


According to Roger Vin's hostage video, there were "dozens" by July 2013.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UP1YsMlrfF0


"We are use the Yayoi Kaikei accounting system."

Outside of that hilarity, this thing seriously is either fake or a scary indictment of the lack of acumen and precision demanded by an organization of this type.

How often does a grunting, surly herd of "male 20-40 year olds, with a deep distrust for established financial systems", organize on your tiny Japanese farm and crap gold nuggets towards each other?

Bitcoin, the Napster of cryptocurrency.


I'll contend that Mt.Gox::Bitcoin as Napster::MP3.

MP3 was "good enough" to revolutionize the way we buy and pirate music. Napster was enabled by MP3 tech, but flamed out spectacularly.

MP3 survived though, and now more music is sold online than in record stores.


Who on earth would be foolish enough to ever give those involved another dollar/transaction?

They are going to try to use this to peddle security devices? Seriously?


Oh, God, an Arm and Hammer cat litter flash ad popped up while I was scrolling through this site, playing sound automatically.

And I see no way to silence it or close it.


Try not to use God in vain when you're on a public forum. It's just a daft popup mate.


If you tried to cope with everyone's varying view of blasphemy on a public forum, there isn't much you could say.

Also, you can only really take a gods name in vain if you happen to believe in that god, otherwise it is merely a culturally acquired exclamation. If I say "By Zeus, that bathwater is hot.", I am not being blasphemous unless I believe that Zeus exists.


It's not about blasphemy. It's about referring to the source of the universe (belief respective) over a popup, just a bit daft is all, mate.


"It's not about blasphemy."

"Try not to use God in vain when you're on a public forum."

I seem to remember there is something in one of those books about bearing false witness.


Ahahaha. That's all I have to say, because your point is so pedantic and wrong, that your aspergers might have infected your whole frontal cortex.


Look, I'd had a lovely supper, and all I said to my wife was, 'That piece of halibut was good enough for Jehovah'.


Farewell, Magic: The Gathering Online Exchange. With your passing, the Bitcoin world has lost its greatest and most hilarious punching bag.


At the very least, maybe this overly clever joke of showing off that you know the original name of the service will finally die with it.


The best part about that joke is there is no remotely convincing evidence that the site ever actually was a playing card exchange.


Assuming a (presumably incomplete) scraping by archive.org is "convincing evidence", it was originally an exchange for virtual trading cards.

https://web.archive.org/web/20070525044536/http://mtgox.com/...


Of course they were virtual cards, that's what a "Magic: The Gathering Online" Exchange would be.

(But actually MTGO has it's own de-facto virtual currency - tix - which are regularly traded for cards through the MTGO interface.


> Of course they were virtual cards, that's what a "Magic: The Gathering Online" Exchange would be.

I think the confusion is that some people parse it incorrectly as "Magic: The Gathering" + "Online Exchange" rather than as "Magic: The Gathering Online" + "Exchange", so think that it was (planned to be) an exchange for physical rather than virtual cards.


Which is 'in beta' and never had anything else on that home page.

It's just a placeholder text.


Irrelevant. The joke is that they're such a bunch of incompetent goofballs that they couldn't be bothered to change the name.


there is plenty.


That's what I said, yes.

The problem is, it paid off. We've all been saying "Um, maybe doing major financial exchanges with an outfit so unprofessional that they do business under an initialism for 'Magic: The Gathering Online Exchange' isn't such a great idea." And now it turns out we were 100% right. So...there's no joke anymore. It's just historical fact now.




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