I've run the Java Users' Group in Philadelphia for almost 14 years, and I specialized in Java recruiting between 1999-2010. I know a lot of Java pros.
Our meetings still get pretty strong attendance (80-120 per meeting), but I'm seeing far fewer new sign ups and the faces are much the same. There could be several reasons, but young engineers that I speak with rarely have any interest in Java work (though JVM is still popular).
Some members have taken to coming up to me and saying "Java is dying, you know?" at meetings. It will become harder and harder to find engineers to maintain the Java code as the first generation of Java pros start to move on to other languages or retire. Java needs some new blood and better PR to maintain interest from younger devs, and Android may be the best hope.
This is fairly common it seems, and one of the reasons my JUG (and some others) have modified our guidelines from a Java language focus to a focus on anything Java language or JVM. It has opened things up and allowed us to dive into some topics that will keep our audience more engaged.
I think interest overall in software development has plateau'd recently. I go to software events and think, "of five million people in the area, these are the fifty really interested in software development. Half are probably hobbyists, and the other half are probably already employed. A person that needs to hire a developer has big problems."
I'd disagree with that. In my area, the software dev population has just become segmented as different languages and tools became popular. When I started the JUG, there was an active Perl group and a Linux group but little else that drew a crowd. Now there is a strong Python group, 2 Ruby groups, a Scala group, a Clojure group, an FP group, a big data group, a Node group, Android and iOS groups, and probably a handful I've not even considered.
I know most of the other groups still draw smaller crowds than JUG, and there are several possible theories or justifications for that which have nothing to do with language popularity.
This of course is anecdotal and represents Philadelphia, but I'd imagine other locations have some similar experiences.
Our meetings still get pretty strong attendance (80-120 per meeting), but I'm seeing far fewer new sign ups and the faces are much the same. There could be several reasons, but young engineers that I speak with rarely have any interest in Java work (though JVM is still popular).
Some members have taken to coming up to me and saying "Java is dying, you know?" at meetings. It will become harder and harder to find engineers to maintain the Java code as the first generation of Java pros start to move on to other languages or retire. Java needs some new blood and better PR to maintain interest from younger devs, and Android may be the best hope.