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I wonder why the crime rate is falling so pronouncedly there. I also wonder how (if at all) it's related to the ethnic/religious tensions surrounding the immigrant population. That's a subject we were hearing about for a while, but evidently it hasn't translated into much violence, at least not of the prison-filling type.



No real war on drugs, a very strong public service ethic (they have by far the most polite police I've encountered anywhere), and they have high expectations of themselves as a society. They are quite conformist but more in the sense of liking to be like each other, not punishment oriented towards people who are different.

Anecdotal impressions of course, and superficial ones at that - I lived there for a few years but I'd need pages to write about them. If you ever have a chance to work/study/live there for a year, I'd say jump at the chance. It's not heaven on earth by any means, but Dutch people and society are worth getting to know.


I admire the Dutch a whole lot too. But why would the crime rate be falling?


Looking at the data published by the Dutch Statistics Bureau, it seems to me that the most pronounced drop is in the money crimes. They have been falling quite heavily since 2002 (after a jump up two years before). Violence seems to be steady for the past four years, while vandalism has been mostly growing for the past 15 years.

(Using crimes committed per 100'000 people between ages 12 and 79.)

For those that speak Dutch, the link to the table is: http://statline.cbs.nl/StatWeb/publication/?VW=T&DM=SLNL...

On a semi-related note: I'm quite pleased that the Statistics Bureau's StatLine application now works in my browser. It's mostly HTML right now. It used to be mostly Java.


But why would the crime rate be falling?

Demographic transition (fewer young people of the age most likely to commit crimes) might have a large enough effect size to account for that.


Network effect works in reverse as well - if fewer people commit crimes you will be pressed to conform, and in turn will exert similar pressure on other potential hoodlums.


It sounds like they live in a collectivist (as opposed to individualistic) society.


Actually the Dutch are much more open minded, individualistic then other continental European nations. This is reflected in their openness and willingness to engage in conversation etc. They seem to have an interesting blend between individualist and collectivist. The Germans e.g. are much more conform and shy (Dutch and German soccer teams play very different: Dutch allow for some action, while Germans play according to formations they've practiced).

Before the U.S. economy took off in the 20th century, it was the UK and Netherlands which had the most dynamic and open market place. Further, the Netherlands were always a tolerant place for divergent political and religious views.


The Netherlands has a very strong history of working together. It was the only way to solve the never ending floods.

There was a good article from the NY Times posted a few weeks ago which provides a good summary of life in the Netherlands: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=595465


If you like mystery novels, read Willem van de Wettering's series of police procedurals about a bunch of Amsterdam cops, and you'll come to a decidedly different conclusion.

Also, Nicholas Freeling's van der Valk series, ditto.


I read a couple of Freeling's novels recently, including one of the van der Valks. I kept wanting to like them better than I did; they were a bit too extraneously literary and too weak on plot for my taste. I'll have to give Wettering a try. Care to recommend one?


I'm not sure: they're a series, and as such the effect is cumulative. Also, if you found Freeling overly literary, van de Wettering's Zen sensibility (he also wrote three nonfiction books on his experiences studying Zen around the world [Japan and America in particular]).

I just noticed, reading the Wikipedia article, that he died last July 4. Another one gone. Damn.


That's just plain nonsense. Some of you Americans (sorry, assuming here) seem to think that Europe is some kind of communist hellhole/paradise. It's neither.


Another interesting fact is the prison population rates per 100,000 of the national population. US has the highest rate in the world.

US: 760

Netherlands: 100

http://www.kcl.ac.uk/depsta/law/research/icps/worldbrief/wpb...


It's also interesting to compare the number of slaves in the USA before slavery became illegal, to the number of prisoners in the USA working for almost nothing.

That's right... there's now more slaves in the USA than before it became illegal.

Most prisons in the USA are run by private companies. They get paid by the states to hold the prisoners. Recently there were some judges convicted of sending innocent children to jail in exchange for financial payments from some of these private prisons.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/13/us/13judge.html?_r=2&h...


This article has an interesting take on the immigrant population. http://www.nrc.nl/international/opinion/article2248923.ece/G...

With a minimum wage of about $20/hr it's difficult to break in at the low end of the labor market. [edit- appears this is an off base presumption]


The 20 USD/h sounded like a bit much, so I did a check on that number. According to a site about wages by the largest Dutch union, the minimum wage for a 40 hour workweek is 1491.70 EUR/month. That comes down to about 8.61 EUR/h or (current FX on Yahoo) 12.06 USD/h. It may be higher if a union negotiated more for a certain sector, but in general, 12.06 USD/h is the minimum wage.

It seems like Ms. Mees is exaggerating a bit to make her point.

Another inaccuracy in her article surfaces when she refers to the polls that say that Wilders' party is currently leading. The polls she is referring to suffer from severe selection bias. People sign up to be part of the panel that gets polled. Since Wilders' supporters are mostly disgruntled with current political affairs, it seems very likely that they are overrepresented in those polls.

I don't think she was aware of that though. These polls are done weekly and generally get some press (sad but true), mostly without any critical note (or any note at all) about the methodology (even sadder). [Wilders' may very well gain quite a following, but it's not evident from those polls.]


The number USD20/hour comes from the minimum cost to employer - remember that this is a society that has generous unemployment and health provisions: payroll duties, compulsory (employer-paid) social costs are fairly high, up to 100% of the gross salary for low-paid workers.

And when you're not a low-paid worker - like me - the payroll duties etc are a very small part of what my employer pays, maybe 5% or so, but I pay more than 50% of my salary in income tax! So, in either case, the state and the social institutions get their cut.

I personally like living somewhere where health care is a basic right for everyone (even if provision of it is a bit backward compared to somewhere like Spain or Australia - they're just discovering evidence-based medicine for example), people on the street are either foreigners and/or actively refuse help from the social services, and there's a generally strong tendency to solidarity despite recent trends towards an American-style consumerism and (not to be too blunt) selfishness.


I do recall reading somewhere that the netherlands is the happiest country in the world (at least in terms of depression rates). I do also recall mention that the netherlands has a low income disparity. Whatever your stance on that subject is, it's true that less poverty = less crime.


They also seem to be the tallest country: http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2004/04/05/040405fa_fact


low income disparity != low poverty

Poverty in the US is above the median wage in Portugal.


Depends on your definition of poor. Here in The Netherlands, poverty is defined as the lowest x% of income. (From what I hear, it's the same in the larger part of Europe, but I can't remember my sources...) That would make high income disparity almost synonymous with high poverty.

And there is something to be said for it. If everybody in a country is making more, the price of living will be higher as well. If you're in the lower x%, you'll still have a hard time to pay for it.


> Depends on your definition of poor.

While we could define "poor" as "wearing yellow pants", such a definition isn't useful.

> If everybody in a country is making more, the price of living will be higher as well. If you're in the lower x%, you'll still have a hard time to pay for it.

That depends on what "it" we're talking about.

Suppose that 95% of the population can afford to travel at Warp 10 to {wherever}. Does that imply that the remaining 5% are necessarily "poor"? To me, whether they're poor depends on facts not in evidence, namely, what can they afford?

Those who define poverty in relative terms are basically in the envy camp; they're unhappy if someone has more. Me, I'm in the greed camp. I don't care what other people have - I care what I have.


> While we could define "poor" as "wearing yellow pants", such a definition isn't useful.

Yes, but you may have noticed that I described a definition after my statement, which is the generally accepted definition of poverty in The Netherlands, the country under discussion. By all means, disagree (I'm not sure I agree with it myself), but brushing it aside as some random statement with the usefulness of "wearing yellow pants" is not really fair.

> That depends on what "it" we're talking about.

Random stuff. May include foodstuff, may also include random luxury stuff. Obviously for the former it's important, while for the latter it's supposed to be normal.

> Those who define poverty in relative terms are basically in the envy camp; they're unhappy if someone has more.

True enough, but that would seem to be the more "normal" attitude. (Keeping up with the Joneses and such.)

Before the banks fouled up and it became trendy, the Dutch were already in uproar about high salaries for some top dogs. This has lead to something called the "Balkenende-limit": no one in the public or semi-public sector is allowed to earn more than the prime minister (Balkenende currently). While this is reasonable (it is public money after all), minor uproars break out from time to time when a newspaper gets his hand on somebody's wage details, even if that person is in the private sector.

Interesting enough, nobody cares about the salary paid to soccer players, which are just as high.


>> That depends on what "it" we're talking about.

>Random stuff. May include foodstuff, may also include random luxury stuff. Obviously for the former it's important, while for the latter it's supposed to be normal.

Not so fast. The claim was "If everybody in a country is making more, the price of living will be higher as well. If you're in the lower x%, you'll still have a hard time to pay for it."

I took "hard time" to mean that you can't afford something important, where it matters.

> This has lead to something called the "Balkenende-limit": no one in the public or semi-public sector is allowed to earn more than the prime minister (Balkenende currently). While this is reasonable (it is public money after all),

Is that standard necessarily reasonable? Lots of US medical doctors who work for public hospitals or medical schools make more than the US president, let alone the various state governors.

Why should "status" offices, especially elected ones, be high paying? Surely you're not arguing that you have to pay them a lot to keep them from stealing? And, if they feel that their skills are so valuable, shouldn't someone be willing to pay them voluntarily?

Yes, I'm one of those folks who don't think that folks "in public service" should be especially well paid. I make an exception for folks who could do the exact same thing in the private sector, but legislators, judges, and the executive branch don't qualify.


> Yes, but you may have noticed that I described a definition after my statement, which is the generally accepted definition of poverty in The Netherlands, the country under discussion. By all means, disagree (I'm not sure I agree with it myself), but brushing it aside as some random statement with the usefulness of "wearing yellow pants" is not really fair.

Since I dealt with its substance later on, I didn't brush it aside.

That said, when the only support given is "lots of folks believe it", is brushing it aside unreasonable? Does it matter if they're Dutch? Should I have argued about the number of people who believe that position, whether they're Dutch, or whether the Dutch are authorities on this subject?

I thought not, so that's why I argued against a valid reason for their position and disussed its implications.


In terms of analyzing crime, that's not necessarily the best strategy. Otherwise, how do you explain why Enron executives were willing to defraud companies for millions when they were already very wealthy?

What it essentially boils down to is some variation of "Well, so and so has a Lamborghini, but I've only got a Corvette."


Like I said, envy vs greed. They're related, but they're not the same.


Here in The Netherlands, poverty is defined as the lowest x% of income

Wouldn't that mean that, by definition, it is impossible to eradicate poverty?


(Is this accounting for cost of living?)


Figures I've seen used purchasing power parity, so yes.


But does it take into account the cost of not having the same protection from a welfare system. Poor people in the US may have more money to spend, but what happens when they get sick, or need higher education?




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