His email hinted at uncovering a grand plot. Lots of people who have mental issues think they've uncovered grand plots.
Even saying it's likely
I didn't say it was likely, I said it was possible (given that the outright acceptance of incredibly conspiracy theories are by far the most commonly discussed possibility). The difference is profound.
But really I think there are some people who seriously flunked basic probabilities. When considering the possibility that he a) was assassinated by rogue government agents who apparently both hacked his car and improvised explosives, or b) who had personal issues that led to irrational behavior, you are seriously saying that the former is more probable? Give me a break -- that is a seriously broken mental model.
Further the legend of this reporter has exploded into something completely detached from reality. His legacy is that he wrote an article for Rolling Stone magazine where a shooting-from-the-hip general who was a loudmouthed braggart (almost certainly because he was talking to a Rolling Stone reporter and wanted to be cool) got taken down for it. If you read the narrative on here, this reporter went deep in the NSA and hacked the special mainframe.
Why don't you enlighten us all as to the workings of "basic probabilities", since you have clearly applied them in arriving at your conclusions.
Perhaps you can start by identifying all of the variables that you considered in assessing the probability of each scenario, then move on to providing us with the statistical probability that you calculated for each of those variables.
His email hinted at uncovering a grand plot. Lots of people who have mental issues think they've uncovered grand plots.
In other words, claiming to have uncovered a plot is a sign for a mental health issue? Just like being angry is a sign of rabies, huh? Before you dive into probabilities, check out some logic, I hear it helps. And maybe history, since you seem to think a "plot" is something like an elf or pink elephants.
are seriously saying that the former is more probable
Nope, that's the beauty of it, I'm not even speculating either way. I am dealing with your comment only. When I read that email, I don't see any signs of madness. To the contrary, that bit about legal advice seems a bit too coolheaded for even drug use.
Which you said takes "sheer powers of rationalization I can't even fathom". Which really is an extraordinary and ridiculous statement (which I'm learning is the modus operandi among the theorists -- feigned outrage that any other scenario outside of the most conspiratorial could even be contemplated): Such fits of irrational behavior happen to countless people yearly, often under the influence of alcohol, drugs, or simply intense stress. Sometimes it's even a tactic for the suicidal.
The simple possibility that he was on a bender or had an episode simply defies reason in your imagination, which leaves the gamut of the possible rather narrowed, despite your absurd protests to the contrary.
Even saying it's likely
I didn't say it was likely, I said it was possible (given that the outright acceptance of incredibly conspiracy theories are by far the most commonly discussed possibility). The difference is profound.
But really I think there are some people who seriously flunked basic probabilities. When considering the possibility that he a) was assassinated by rogue government agents who apparently both hacked his car and improvised explosives, or b) who had personal issues that led to irrational behavior, you are seriously saying that the former is more probable? Give me a break -- that is a seriously broken mental model.
Further the legend of this reporter has exploded into something completely detached from reality. His legacy is that he wrote an article for Rolling Stone magazine where a shooting-from-the-hip general who was a loudmouthed braggart (almost certainly because he was talking to a Rolling Stone reporter and wanted to be cool) got taken down for it. If you read the narrative on here, this reporter went deep in the NSA and hacked the special mainframe.