Seeing is different to reading. Though I agree with you, there are too many factors I see to ignore. For example, I can't see jobs for university graduates (even professors!), urbanization has basically resulted in construction work as a means of mass employment (hint: makes problem worse), and the cost of basic sustenance inside of China (food, drink, etc.) is higher in real terms than in neighbouring countries and growing rapidly year-on-year. At the same time, real estate which was the engine of the economy is in meltdown (source: first hand discussions with developers, observation). The cost of an apartment in a third-tier Chinese city is far higher than that of neighbours. Realising this economic climate and how much further their government-backed cash goes overseas, we witness the acceleration of private wealth leaving China. The last time I flew through Beijing airport, UBS had proudly procured all the billboards. It's not rocket science, there's a virtual robbery going on... similar to other periods of economic or political change worldwide... similar actors, and few in the country would deny it. People are upset. It's not pretty.
I admit, my economics knowledge is limited. But if the repeated bubble/burst economy of US has taught us anything, having economics knowledge in the grand scale amounts for jack shit. Its really hard to predict, precisely whats going to happen with the economy when your country is as big as USA/China. You can only have good guestimate. Having said that, my problem is with this kind of sentences:
>China's bubble is about to burst.
What does "about to" means, when you have been reading about it for the last10 years? Is it tomorrow, next year, 10 years from now?
One things I understand about economy of developing country (and yes China is one despite being second largest economy) is that, there is always some scope for growth. Unlike matured economy like USA/European countries where almost every aspect of the country's economy is tied to each other. If something goes belly up, it usually affects other parts of the economy. This is not usually true for developing countries like China. They don't depend on a single source of market to survive, there is always some scope for growth and something else to pick you up from the slump.
Developed nations are like almost full glass of water, you have to be careful how fast you try to feel it up. Developing countries are like quarter/half-filled glass, if you try to fill it up too quick you might slosh a bit of water out of the glass, making it messy, but you can afford to fill it up quickly.
