I think the Lib Dems have collectively played their hand poorly since entering the government.
Objectively, they have achieved some huge wins from their own election pledges, which is no mean feat in a coalition. Probably their biggest success has been raising the tax thresholds in a way that benefits many of the less well-off but working people in the country. And for all the current mess about mass surveillance, you have to remember that compulsory ID cards for everyone were being pushed strongly by the previous administration and have been scrapped since.
The trouble is, the Lib Dems have terrible PR people who haven't played up their strengths to any significant extent at all, so they've just got lost in all the negative stories. They totally mishandled the tuition fees issue (at least, those of their MPs who didn't rebel did) and that cost them dearly, because they lost the credibility they so desperately needed to get things done in government and they've been playing defence ever since. Add in a couple of scandals costing Cabinet-level people their jobs, throw in this Lord Carlile guy that no-one had ever heard of until he became the Lib Dems' chief apologist for anything not really very liberal at all and Vince Cable as possibly the most overtly business-hostile Business Secretary in recorded history, and their top brass is looking more like a bunch of school kids playing at government than senior members of an actual national government. This in turn just plays into probably the Lib Dems' biggest PR problem coming into government, which was convincing people that all those nice-sounding policies they were free to advocate when they had no chance of winning the election could actually work for real.
As a point of interest, we were within a few metaphorical steps of "Papers please" on ID cards and it really was popular revolt that forced the political class to roll it back, so I'm not ruling out that significant public backlash you mentioned against the on-line surveillance. Almost everyone uses Facebook and Google, but a lot of people don't really like them very much, particularly the constant invasions of privacy, and I suspect a lot of people are getting fed up with the US overtly throwing its weight around one way or another too. It's not hard to imagine that this could become an issue with significant weight by election time unless it's all water under the bridge by then, and I don't see any chance of that happening if anyone in government really does try to force through the snooper's charter. Surely international relations are going to have a much higher profile next time than in the past, particularly with the EU debate and the rising profile of UKIP.
On the list of big Lib Dem capitulations there was also the NHS bill, legal aid, work fare, secret courts and criminalisation of squatting, just off the top of my head. Which were all issues that significant numbers of their MPs opposed, but in the end they gave in on all of those in exchange for Lords reform. The tories then turned around and rejected lords reform and the only measure the Lib Dems could retaliate with was killing boundary reform, which was a trivial issue nobody cared about. So they sold out on nearly all of their social/health policies in exchange for the AV referendum and Lords reform and got outplayed by the Tories both times. Tuition fees was bad PR wise for them, but that was their own fault for trying to buy the student vote so blatantly.
They try to claim the bottom tax rate change as a huge victory but I don't really buy it. Either coalition or Tory government they would have needed something to counterbalance the top rate tax cut and austerity, those "how does it affect you" articles would have been too politically toxic otherwise. Additionally, other cuts to benefits and services significantly nullify the income tax changes for lower paid people.
I agree that we could see something like what happened with ID cards, and there are at least a couple of Tories (David Davis probably) who will be opposed to internet surveillance and speak out, which will cause trouble for the PM since his ability to control the party is already at breaking point. So I do remain slightly hopeful that this proposal can be blocked - it will certainly be tricky for Cameron to get it through. I'm more worried about Labour coming into power in 2015 and forcing it through before there is much chance for people to get angry about it. It also depends how much media coverage it gets. The BBC can be very very silent on issues when they want (see: the NHS bill), and if the right wing press don't talk about it much a lot of people just won't hear much about it.
So they sold out on nearly all of their social/health policies in exchange for the AV referendum and Lords reform and got outplayed by the Tories both times.
Indeed. As I said, I think they've misplayed their hand terribly. Having got into government, instead of using their unexpected influence to further their agenda and show themselves to be worthy of more support in future, they tried to solidify their position by the back door, playing political games with the electoral system. This was a lose-no win situation for them, because the only deals seriously on the table in each case weren't really going to fix the obvious problems with our electoral systems, they were just going to make them slightly less bad. And in reality, the two big parties were never going to let the Lib Dems cement their position in government so easily and were always going to win both of those battles at almost any cost, so it was really a lose-lose proposition from the start. Someone forgot to read Sun Tzu.
I'm more worried about Labour coming into power in 2015 and forcing it through before there is much chance for people to get angry about it.
I'm think that's a very unlikely possibility at the moment. The Labour party seems to be a political non-entity under Miliband, so I find the idea that they will run an effective campaign in the run up to 2015 implausible unless something dramatic changes. I think too many people's memories will be too long for them to fight back this time even if they run a brilliant campaign. Too many bad things clearly happened on their watch under Blair/Brown, and too many of those responsible are still in positions of influence in the party, and there aren't enough believable alternatives to spin their way out of responsibility so soon.
My current bet would be for another hung parliament, with none of the big three parties doing particularly well in terms of popular respect, a modest surge in support for several smaller parties and particularly UKIP, but little really changing in 2015 because the first past the post system will mean the devils you know still take almost all of the seats anyway. What happens with Scottish independence will be a factor by then, too. Ironically, another hung parliament but with more minority votes effectively discarded to get there might lead to renewed calls to fix the election system in the way the Lib Dems haven't managed to push through in this administration, which in turn would move us away from a tendency to swap between two parties every few years and towards more regular coalition or ad-hoc alliance arrangements.
But of course 2015 is an eternity away in political terms, so I might change my expectations after seeing the news tomorrow, and change them many more times before the next general election.
Objectively, they have achieved some huge wins from their own election pledges, which is no mean feat in a coalition. Probably their biggest success has been raising the tax thresholds in a way that benefits many of the less well-off but working people in the country. And for all the current mess about mass surveillance, you have to remember that compulsory ID cards for everyone were being pushed strongly by the previous administration and have been scrapped since.
The trouble is, the Lib Dems have terrible PR people who haven't played up their strengths to any significant extent at all, so they've just got lost in all the negative stories. They totally mishandled the tuition fees issue (at least, those of their MPs who didn't rebel did) and that cost them dearly, because they lost the credibility they so desperately needed to get things done in government and they've been playing defence ever since. Add in a couple of scandals costing Cabinet-level people their jobs, throw in this Lord Carlile guy that no-one had ever heard of until he became the Lib Dems' chief apologist for anything not really very liberal at all and Vince Cable as possibly the most overtly business-hostile Business Secretary in recorded history, and their top brass is looking more like a bunch of school kids playing at government than senior members of an actual national government. This in turn just plays into probably the Lib Dems' biggest PR problem coming into government, which was convincing people that all those nice-sounding policies they were free to advocate when they had no chance of winning the election could actually work for real.
As a point of interest, we were within a few metaphorical steps of "Papers please" on ID cards and it really was popular revolt that forced the political class to roll it back, so I'm not ruling out that significant public backlash you mentioned against the on-line surveillance. Almost everyone uses Facebook and Google, but a lot of people don't really like them very much, particularly the constant invasions of privacy, and I suspect a lot of people are getting fed up with the US overtly throwing its weight around one way or another too. It's not hard to imagine that this could become an issue with significant weight by election time unless it's all water under the bridge by then, and I don't see any chance of that happening if anyone in government really does try to force through the snooper's charter. Surely international relations are going to have a much higher profile next time than in the past, particularly with the EU debate and the rising profile of UKIP.