“Android grew to the world’s most popular mobile OS (it’s now on 750 million devices worldwide, with 1.5 million new activations every day)”
Given how it’s phrased, it must be referring to Android installed base. 8 months a go, Eric Schmidt announced[1] that Android has an installed base of 480 million users and that 1.3 million Android devices are activated per day. So it’s entirely possible that Wired’s figures are correct, and that Android is the most ‘popular’ mobile OS, in the literal sense of the word (lots of people use Android devices).
‘Popular’ also has other meanings, like ‘regarded with favor, approval, or affection by people in general’. For that, it’s more useful to look at surveys measuring user satisfaction and consumer purchase planning. Those surveys tell a different story: consumers are far more satisfied with iPhones than with other smartphones, and more Android users switch to iOS than vice versa.
The predictions I listed are some of the latest, but they don’t differ much from one year a go. And indeed, Apple sells more iOS devices than ever.
In the US, where the iPhone has been available longest, iPhone market share has actually been increasing at all the major telcos – it’s growing faster than any of its competitors.
Satisfaction amongst users of the product is a very poor proxy for popularity amongst the general population. One reason for this is that if someone is unhappy with iOS, there is a good chance that they will switch to Android or another platform, and hence remove themselves from the iOS pool. Another big reason is that making a device that appeals very much to a niche segment will give you a much better score than a product aimed at a broader user base - so the "popular" product will almost always end up with a lower satisfaction score.
I tried to distinguish between the two definitions of ‘popular’, you’re conflating them.
Most people have a mobile device that came with Android preinstalled. In that sense Android is popular. It also has the most malware infections on mobile devices, but would you say Android’s malware is most popular?
iPhones are the most popular cameras used by Flickr members[1], but it’s hard to tell whether that also means these people prefer iOS over Android.
Which I think raises an interesting point/question. We all know that these 'forums' are essentially echo chambers for all sides of the discussion and are hardly representative of typical use patterns. With that in mind, how much of the market is actually using their device? In my little corner of the world I see them (smartphones) used for photos, IM/SMS, the odd game and Facebook. On occasion the more savvy user has email enabled and may use maps for directions. Is there data out there for this? not that it changes the figures, but it could potentially alter what they mean and therefore have an impact on how we design apps etc.