Maybe I have been extremely lucky my whole life, but I have never thought of a startup as being risky.
Financial risk is all about investing your personal human capital and looking for the highest expected value.
When I approached the end of college, I looked at what I was given (mediocre programming skills, some street smarts, a knack for bs) and I realized that my expected financial return was much higher in a startup.
Take 5 years out for example.
Assumptions:
- 10% at 20 M = 2 M
- 10% at 10 M = 1 M
- 10% at 5 M = 500k
- 10% at 500,000 = 50,000
- 60% at nothing = $0
- Total of 3.55 M expected return on my personal human capital
- 100% at 500k (salary over 5 years, being generous)
- Total of 500k expected return
3.55 M > 500k. Of course these numbers are personal, and everyone is different, but I don't think they are unrealistic.
Just come up with expected exits if you were to start a startup then come up with percentages as to which you think those exits are reasonable.
The numbers I came up with were largely based on my personal feeling of how good I am at this whole being a business-man business, this is different for everyone.
I find it hard to escape my comfort zone when I'm comfortable. When I had a "job" I would set a goal each year of setting up a small internet business. I called it a cyber lemonade stand. I wanted something small that I could learn from and experiment with different types of promotion. It wasn't until I left that job this happened. The years I was in my comfort zone I couldn't be pushed to do the uncomfortable thing of working extra to make a small business to learn from. Having my back against the wall seems to be a good motivator for getting things done.
I resigned from my 8 year career at a large financial software firm to work on my start-up full time this past January. It is definitely a risk and most people who work in a large stable corporation won't make that move. They thought I was insane to leave a stable high paying job for a risky and unknown venture. I don't know if I'll succeed yet, but I'm sure it was the right move for me. But there is a company full of people I left who will never make that kind of leap.
I've had opportunities to leave a comfortable day job to work on startups. What kept me from joining up wasn't just risk but I didn't believe it would be a success. That's most important. Bootstrapping my own startup has taken more time but I've been completely relaxed on it and able to really set my launch up well without having to worry about supporting my family through a risky situation.
I think the answer is surprisingly few. This makes it hard because you need to have the ganas enough to a) quit b) devote most of your time. On top of that, you need to have a co-founder who is willing to make the same sacrifice. Having a co-founder who isn't on the same page isn't completely worthless but it can be terribly frustrating.
I had kept a day job and worked on my startup only in (all) my spare time for more than 2 years, that _is_ challenging, kind of keeping-an-out-of-marriage-affair challenging -- you get the idea. (or do you? :)
Financial risk is all about investing your personal human capital and looking for the highest expected value.
When I approached the end of college, I looked at what I was given (mediocre programming skills, some street smarts, a knack for bs) and I realized that my expected financial return was much higher in a startup.
Take 5 years out for example.
Assumptions:
- 10% at 20 M = 2 M - 10% at 10 M = 1 M - 10% at 5 M = 500k - 10% at 500,000 = 50,000 - 60% at nothing = $0 - Total of 3.55 M expected return on my personal human capital
- 100% at 500k (salary over 5 years, being generous) - Total of 500k expected return
3.55 M > 500k. Of course these numbers are personal, and everyone is different, but I don't think they are unrealistic.