Sure, humans suck at estimating. But I think without addressing the purpose(s) of estimating it's easy to rat hole. I think that at the very least we have the following.
1. Estimating work helps determine if the schedule needs to expand or a feature needs to be cut. Sometimes it helps determine a need for more headcount but beware the mythical man month.
2. The process of estimating also unearths project risk. How risky is a particular item? Well, humans also suck at estimating risk so it's hard to say. But at least the risks are stated openly and everyone knows about them.
3. Estimating makes many assumptions explicit. Or at the very least, they're often implied as "large tasks". This may or may not be the same as #2.
I'm not about to make any claims about magical methodologies that will work for every team everywhere and I don't have any Agile training to sell anyone but I think those two goals are worthy ones. And I don't think the actual estimates matter so much as the act of estimating and talking through the assumptions.
In my own experience the problem with estimates isn't that people are bad at making them but that people are too afraid of getting them wrong. Or too afraid to show someone else that they're unsure of anything because we're all supposed to be "experts", right? Unfortunately those are seen as individual weaknesses instead of group strengths. So people game their estimates and cover insecurity with bravado and then we have articles like this. Harrumph.
1. Estimating work helps determine if the schedule needs to expand or a feature needs to be cut. Sometimes it helps determine a need for more headcount but beware the mythical man month.
2. The process of estimating also unearths project risk. How risky is a particular item? Well, humans also suck at estimating risk so it's hard to say. But at least the risks are stated openly and everyone knows about them.
3. Estimating makes many assumptions explicit. Or at the very least, they're often implied as "large tasks". This may or may not be the same as #2.
I'm not about to make any claims about magical methodologies that will work for every team everywhere and I don't have any Agile training to sell anyone but I think those two goals are worthy ones. And I don't think the actual estimates matter so much as the act of estimating and talking through the assumptions.
In my own experience the problem with estimates isn't that people are bad at making them but that people are too afraid of getting them wrong. Or too afraid to show someone else that they're unsure of anything because we're all supposed to be "experts", right? Unfortunately those are seen as individual weaknesses instead of group strengths. So people game their estimates and cover insecurity with bravado and then we have articles like this. Harrumph.