> But most of these stories are around creation of Mac. By that time, Apple was quite successful.
No, not true. Remember that, at the time of the Mac's introduction, the chapter just ending included the sad stories of the Apple /// -- a terrible design and very bad decision on Jobs' part -- and the failed design of the Lisa computer, an obvious Mac predecessor that just didn't work out and another bad Jobs decision. This means the Mac introduction would likely make or break Apple.
The Mac introduction was the turning point for Apple. Had it failed, Apple might also have failed.
> What made Steve so successful when everyone who has worked with him thinks he was a jerk!
That's easy to answer -- chance. What are the chances that someone with terrible interpersonal skills will happen to be colocated with a time and place of technological inevitability? Let's say that chance is p (p = probability). Not an easy number to compute but very small.
Now how many opportunities (n) exist for such a juxtaposition? That runs into the tens of thousands to the millions, depending on which criteria we accept and how much time we allow.
Let's say for the sake of argument that the probability p (for a perfectly unsuitable person to be at the right place at the right time) is equal to 10^-6 and the number of opportunities n is equal to 10^6. On that basis, the chance (c) for exactly one such occurrence is (using the binomial theorem):
The probability for one or more successes in that same scenario:
c = sum(nCk p^k (1-p)^(n-k),k,1,oo) = 0.63212
Not at all unlikely. People who describe Jobs as a twisted but essential genius, and assert that it's the only possible explanation, don't understand probability.
People who believe in proving 'technical inevitability' via probability don't understand shipping a product, from conception, to funding, development, and marketing.
People with genuine vision inspire others to lift their work above mediocrity; to look beyond themselves at a broader vision of the world.
If all it took to ship great products was consensus decision making by smart, highly technical people, then we'd have had be year of Linux on the desktop by now.
> People who believe in proving 'technical inevitability' via probability don't understand shipping a product, from conception, to funding, development, and marketing.
Let me turn that argument around. Every example of a company, employees, management and corporate style, and other similar issues, are subject to probability analysis, and probability explains and/or influences more issues than most people realize.
No, not true. Remember that, at the time of the Mac's introduction, the chapter just ending included the sad stories of the Apple /// -- a terrible design and very bad decision on Jobs' part -- and the failed design of the Lisa computer, an obvious Mac predecessor that just didn't work out and another bad Jobs decision. This means the Mac introduction would likely make or break Apple.
The Mac introduction was the turning point for Apple. Had it failed, Apple might also have failed.
> What made Steve so successful when everyone who has worked with him thinks he was a jerk!
That's easy to answer -- chance. What are the chances that someone with terrible interpersonal skills will happen to be colocated with a time and place of technological inevitability? Let's say that chance is p (p = probability). Not an easy number to compute but very small.
Now how many opportunities (n) exist for such a juxtaposition? That runs into the tens of thousands to the millions, depending on which criteria we accept and how much time we allow.
Let's say for the sake of argument that the probability p (for a perfectly unsuitable person to be at the right place at the right time) is equal to 10^-6 and the number of opportunities n is equal to 10^6. On that basis, the chance (c) for exactly one such occurrence is (using the binomial theorem):
c = nCk p^k (1-p)^(n-k) = nCk (10^-6)^k (1-10^6)^(n-k) = 0.3678
( nCk = n! / k!(n-k)! )
The probability for one or more successes in that same scenario:
c = sum(nCk p^k (1-p)^(n-k),k,1,oo) = 0.63212
Not at all unlikely. People who describe Jobs as a twisted but essential genius, and assert that it's the only possible explanation, don't understand probability.