Thanks for the correction. I clearly did not know that. In my defense, I did add "can't tell you how legitimate [Intrade] is."
What's surprising though is that there are already investment instruments for transferring risks associated with outcomes. These are essentially predictions too, but you can only go "short" on life, so to speak.
Catastrophe Bonds, the recently infamous Credit Default Swaps are all instruments that pay off based on an outcome. In other words, they aren't really linked to the price of any commodity directly.
What's surprising though is that there are already investment instruments for transferring risks associated with outcomes. These are essentially predictions too, but you can only go "short" on life, so to speak.
Catastrophe Bonds, the recently infamous Credit Default Swaps are all instruments that pay off based on an outcome. In other words, they aren't really linked to the price of any commodity directly.
So, what gives? What's the difference?