Phil Greenspun had a blog posting (which I can't find) which basically argued that demand for new vehicles ought to go down as their lifespans increased. Today, a car with 100K miles is still considered reliable, especially a Japanese one.
GM and all the car manufacturers benefited from suburbanization, highway construction, working moms, and increasing family incomes. But, what additional forces are there that will drive future increases in demand? Population growth? The US grows primarily though immigration, and we're becoming even more restrictive. More vehicles per person? There are few people who don't have a car who want one, save for the poorest of Americans. Overseas demand? This looks good, but other countries are bringing cheaper, localized production online. So, as cars last longer and longer, the industry should expect demand to drop.
GM and all the car manufacturers benefited from suburbanization, highway construction, working moms, and increasing family incomes. But, what additional forces are there that will drive future increases in demand? Population growth? The US grows primarily though immigration, and we're becoming even more restrictive. More vehicles per person? There are few people who don't have a car who want one, save for the poorest of Americans. Overseas demand? This looks good, but other countries are bringing cheaper, localized production online. So, as cars last longer and longer, the industry should expect demand to drop.