I think House of Cards probably changed the situation somewhat: if Netflix can keep putting out exclusive content of that caliber HBO is going to lose a lot of customers. The week after that show premiered HBO enabled AirPlay on their iPhone app, which by the way is fantastic. I bet they're already prepared to go the Netflix route and are just watching the numbers for the right time to strike.
I'm so glad Netflix went out to prove this can be done. Truth is many cable providers have exclusive content like DirecTV and Friday Night Lights. It never really worked because the cost to subscribe to cable for one show was so high. Netflix is much more economical and to have a Davind Fincher directed pilot starring Kevin Spacey is proof. Not to mention how accessible the show is.
It's not that simple. Netflix uses traditional channels for international distribution of House of Cards. For instance, it premiered on russian ad-supported TV just few days after US 'release'.
I guess even with 30M paying customers they can't support even one show. HBO has more than one.
