I guess it depends on how you define "success", but I think the chances of the YC startups getting more out of it than they put in is higher than 1-2%. Even if they end up folding the startup, just having been accepted into YC and having the network probably changes your career path significantly.
Why don't you do your startup now from home, grow it a little and see if its a viable model, and then apply when you start getting some traction?
Because right now you are talking about uprooting your whole life over a 1-2% chance of success.