I think Bezos/Blue Origin/Amazon can get there. Bezos has essentially infinite money to fund the development of a reusable rocket. The Amazon can use it to launch a Starlink competitor (Leo). Of course, it will take Bezos longer than Musk, but I think he will get there. I just did a quick Google search: Amazon Leo claims they will introduce commercial service in the US by the end of 2026. Personally, I am very excited to see how Starlink and Leo will compete against each other.
Blue Origin was founded in Sep'00, didn't reach orbit until Jan'25, and probably won't manage 2 more successful launches (to orbit) until more than 2 years after that. Other than burning money, have they ever demonstrated that they can reliably do something at a serious cadence and scale?
Vs. SpaceX was founded in Mar'02, reached orbit in Sep'08 (on a relative shoestring budget), and succeeded with 18.9* out of 20 Falcon 9 launches in the first 6 years of that program - while fielding two major upgrades to the original version. When their AMOS-6 mission blew up on the launchpad (Sep'16), they were launching again in 4 1/2 months.
Bluntly put, there seems to be a "Right Stuff" in the rocket biz, and it really doesn't look like Jeff's got it.
