You can link me studies that are paid and bought for by these companies all day long. Find me one where the guy is not a consultant to the companies themselves.
Cowen was talking up prediction markets before they existed. Both kalshi and polymarket were founded because they listened to cowens thoughts on them. He is absolutely a true believer in prediction markets. Whether that makes him trustworthy is a different issue, but he’s not bought and paid for.
> longshots lose 6.3 cents per dollar when each contract is weighted equally but gain 4.1 cents when related contracts are first grouped by parent event; the two-sided pattern is robust in Crypto and Politics but surprisingly absent in Sports.
This seems like a relatively small inefficiency in the markets, no? If the margin of error notable in a prediction markets is <10 cents per dollar, that implies that they are pricing events pretty accurately. Especially post publication of this paper, when sophisticated traders could trade away this inefficiency.
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/pr...