> They are putting a financial incentive behind accurately predicting the future, which makes these apps basically the most accurate predictor of the future.
There is plenty of data that shows they actually don't work very well outside of surfacing insider knowledge (which the commercial prediction markets superficially pretend to be against).
For events where you can't have full picture insider knowledge like elections, prediction markets are pretty awful at accurate predictions.
There is plenty of data that shows they actually don't work very well outside of surfacing insider knowledge (which the commercial prediction markets superficially pretend to be against).
For events where you can't have full picture insider knowledge like elections, prediction markets are pretty awful at accurate predictions.