It's clear that American capitalism and AI are now fully intertwined. Either they both collapse or they both succeed. This bubble is actually too big for the government to bail out and if it tries it'll probably just bring the American dollar down with it, like tying helium balloons to the Titanic.
It's not about the employment though, it's the financial macroeconomics. A third or so of the US's stock market is AI companies. Let's say they all go to zero, it basically cuts a third off the US's paper wealth and a third off the US dollar's value (which is primarily based on the stocks you can buy with it). The government doesn't want that to happen so it'll try to prevent the stocks from going to zero. The cure may be worse than the disease but this government won't realize it is.
And let's not forget that the US is heavy into short term debt that needs to renew: "As of Q3 FY2026, approximately 33% of U.S. publicly held marketable debt is due to mature and require renewal (refinancing) within 12 months."
> 9.) The US government is broke at these debt to GDP levels
Well that one is false. They print and debase any income or wealth held in USD.
So their print-against base is any and all assets held in USD globally.
The Japanese are also not broke, they've merely spent the past two decades destroying the Yen and chopping down the Japanese standard of living. Print, print, print.
The interest payments on sovereign debt need to be coverable with tax revenue unless you want hyperinflation (real hyperinflation, not meme hyperinflation). The US can't afford interest payments to be any larger.
>It's clear that American capitalism and AI are now fully intertwined.
in what world is that clear lol, American capitalism will do just fine, if the AI companies go down before they can offload all their crap on retail investors the lion's share of the losses will go to the private investors currently writing checks.
The broader banking system isn't exposed, the housing market isn't exposed, the average American would take a 10% hit of on their retirement account but that'd be it. It'd wipe out a fair amount of the tech sector but they're all sitting in California and don't win anyone elections so no point to bail them out
at the start of the pandemic when employees were confused and worried about their families larry emailed his entire company informing them that due to everything going on he was going to permanently move to his private island and "make it a better place with the locals" dude is scum and a colonizer at heart.
Oracle's core business is healthy as fuck. It can't default. It could get into a long period of low R&D since all profits would be directed to serve their debt and that could hurt their product line, but they'd definitely can't just vanish into thin air.
Oh they certainly could default. They make $70B a year in revenue and $17B in profit. Their current interest payments are $5.7B a year!! Their debt is only 1 grade above junk.
But the truest measure of their potential to default, their credit default swaps, are pricing in a 20-22% chance to default before 2031.
They're basically trying to make themselves into the likes of Azure, GCP and AWS. Now you might think that there's no way Oracle will ever be that big, but half of their revenue for the 2026 fiscal year is from their cloud infrastructure, which, trust me, surprised even me.
Indeed, Oracle refuses RAC for example in Azure but we build an HA solution on Azure VMs that is highly reliable and has redundancy for both instance and storage using data guard. Not exactly RAC but very close and highly reliable with proper apps connection configurations databases switchover are transparent for the apps and all this for a fraction of price we would pay if went to Oracle Cloud. We developed automated patching solution on top of that and now we have reliability higher than we had on Exadata. And of course much cheaper. You can guess that Oracle does not like that as they need to sell you as much licenses and Cloud resources as they can.
Is it actually from the cloud section or are they doing like IBM where the marching orders came down that cloud was the way and every mid level manager saw which way the wind was blowing and then worked real hard to get their calculator app moved into the cloud silo.
Google is worse, hmm, what are some of the reasons why? How could they be worse then endless software audits. I have heard of the endless pain of google killing something you depend on.
The painful banning that google does with automated takedowns and no humans to easily talk to is a real impediment. That feels like a perfectly legit complaint. That policy is so self destructive. I think all auto bans without human review should end, but instead we are just making this worse with more and more automated systems.
They are notoriously difficult to contact if your company is banned, or someone within your company is banned. That's it, poof, gone, everything you have.
I had significant free credits for their cloud product. It was not even useful at a 0 pricepoint. I had to escalate repeatedly until I was doing screenshares with very high level engineers, to show them that their VM's, the more core offering, literally would not start.
Buddy works at a public university. Can confirm oracle has their greedy hands in all of the crevices of that place. Slows down the tech stuff so much, since they have to work on top of all this proprietary junk.
ChatGPT, check Claude's work. Once verified, focus on identifying elegant solutions to the shockingly large list of expensive pain points that we encountered with Oracle RDBMS. Run benchmarks using production data. Work on improvements until all database benchmark metrics are equal or better. Make no mistakes
This is depressing. Is this really what software engineering has come to? I should have been a doctor. At least until Optimus do surgery on these guy's brain. Unitree, verify Optimus's work
I've been thinking AI writing the software would get us to huge messes of software stacks that kind of work and no one really understands how they work. Like a giant magic software tower than no one can touch or understand, just hope it keeps working.
> software stacks that kind of work and no one really understands how they work
We've been heading that way for a long time before AI. AI is definitely making it worse in many cases, by lowering the bar to getting something that "works".
Like, you could write a web server in R. You'd need to bang your head against a wall for a while, which might make you think again, but with LLMs it's just a machine that is insanely goal oriented working very quickly.
We've been heading that way for a long time before AI. AI is definitely making it worse in many cases, by lowering the bar to getting something that "works".
Yes, it's very important that only the high priests speak the shibboleths and hold the keys to the Holy of Holies.
This attitude is what the PC revolution was fought to overcome. Talk about living long enough to see yourself become the villain...
- Oracle defaulting on its debt commitments.
- Anti trust action into Skydance forcing a breakup.
- Larry forced to cover the difference by selling family silver.
- Lanai going back into the hands of the people of Hawaii.
Just for the laughs and for forcing me to bear with some of the worst applications of all time.