Free solo climbers, who climb without harnesses, are typically regarded as having a death wish.
Yet, the dangers of AI getting smarter/capable by the month, with stronger offensive capabilities, and alignment observability and congnitive control getting worse, is "imagination".
Interestingly, denialist positions like this don't touch the unsolved problems, and _these_ are FUD on my watch.
The problems I've mentioned are very concrete, and spoiler alert: there may be no solutions to alignment observability and its possible degradation - at least with AI companies not substantially working on it (or even worse, working against it - see recurrent neural networks).
I personally believe there is no solution to alignment. Humans at best are quasi-aligned. Take England, France, and Spain some hundreds of years ago, they'd one up each other and make some gains and take some losses, even though there were bad things happening it had it's own measure of stability.
Then you have the natives of America who had a boat show up. It was wholesale genocide, mostly to disease, but a lot of murder and war. We really have no idea how many died because most died long before we came to shoot them with guns from disease. Any that resisted were brutally put down with technology.
AGI/ASI will be much more akin to a colonizer and we will be the natives in this future.
Yet, the dangers of AI getting smarter/capable by the month, with stronger offensive capabilities, and alignment observability and congnitive control getting worse, is "imagination".
Interestingly, denialist positions like this don't touch the unsolved problems, and _these_ are FUD on my watch.
The problems I've mentioned are very concrete, and spoiler alert: there may be no solutions to alignment observability and its possible degradation - at least with AI companies not substantially working on it (or even worse, working against it - see recurrent neural networks).