For me the November Singularity was when ChatGPT was released in November 2022. Of course, it was a faaaaaar cry from what we see today, and it took a lot of careful wrangling, but it could write reams of correct code and tests even back then.
The thing was the wrangling was relatively straightforward, if cumbersome. Largely, it involved being very precise with the context and instructions it was given. I could imagine a lot of that getting automated (i.e. what we today call harnesses) or recursively addressed by creative meta-prompting. Supported by similarly conceptually simple advances like chain-of-thought reasoning I suspect that is the biggest thing that the models have figured out what to do today compared to then: manage themselves carefully.
Although I could not have predicted these exact outcomes, the implications for everything that is unfolding now were clear even then.
The thing was the wrangling was relatively straightforward, if cumbersome. Largely, it involved being very precise with the context and instructions it was given. I could imagine a lot of that getting automated (i.e. what we today call harnesses) or recursively addressed by creative meta-prompting. Supported by similarly conceptually simple advances like chain-of-thought reasoning I suspect that is the biggest thing that the models have figured out what to do today compared to then: manage themselves carefully.
Although I could not have predicted these exact outcomes, the implications for everything that is unfolding now were clear even then.