The way I see it LLMs are accelerating trends that have been at play for a decade or two now.
I think we are seeing bloat accelerating and the boom will eventually go bust.
My hope is that from the ashes of the current boom/bust cycle we might actually get "software engineering" once the dust settles and society catches up with technology in terms of culture, regulations, education etc.
Software engineering as we knew it is not coming back, except maybe for very niche fields and your own crafting.
Many other engineering fields have experienced this change long ago, where the majority of the "craft" is done by algorithms. Think chip design, aerospace, automotive, structural engineering, material design.
Their engineering is now focused on higher level design (and even that, less in some cases), and verification.
Programmers are not a special species, immune from this trend. Heck, we are the ones who did it to the other fields, and so it is quite amusing that we're not crying when it is our turn.
I think we are seeing bloat accelerating and the boom will eventually go bust.
My hope is that from the ashes of the current boom/bust cycle we might actually get "software engineering" once the dust settles and society catches up with technology in terms of culture, regulations, education etc.