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Polls seem completely useless over the past decade or so. I think betting markets are a better indicator of true sentiment now.
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Betting markets are even less representative. People who trade on politics are usually rich conservative men with a risk taking mindset and more likely to be active crypto users or work in finance. It's a totally different user base from normal polls.

The point of markets isn't to recruit a diverse user base, it's to create an incentive structure that punishes bad predictions and rewards good predictions.



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