They should also be able to give detailed reasons experts in the relevant fields can verify as to how they arrived at a 10% chance all humanity goes extinct. Not a science fiction narrative which likely does not take into account the relevant physical facts limiting such scenarios. Such as how exactly an AI would build a bioweapon capable of killing 8 billion humans across the planet.
I think many of them probably believe the chance is closer to 100%, if artificial super intelligence is created. But they don't want to sound crazy, so they limit themselves to saying "> 10%".
It seems to me like demanding an exact explanation of how AI would build a bioweapon is like demanding to know exactly how a nuclear war would start before deciding that nuclear weapons are a legitimate concern. We can imagine many scenarios, but whatever we imagine is very unlikely to be the exact set of circumstances and events that lead to the catastrophe. Is the issue here that you can't imagine a bioweapon being created? Aren't there several labs around the world already working on viruses ? Aren't there existing bioweapons? And facilities capable of manufacturing them? If humans have access to those places and AI can communicate with humans, then that's all you need.
