Ask HN: Would you use a prediction market mobile app

[vskr]

I want to develop a mobile app for prediction markets, which allows users to predict outcome of events, e.g. Will Life of Pi win "Best movie" Academy award.

Before developing I want to know if there is enough demand for such an application. Would you use such an app if it is available in the market right now.

There is a popular prediction market sit e called InTrade, which is recently banned in US because it allows users to predict using real money

[thomasbk]

What incentive is there for users? Prizes, points, fame?

As a game, I think prediction markets do not entertain too many people because predictions are very long term. Have you thought of a way to fix that?

For what it's worth-- one of the issues I'd have with a mobile format for making more serious predictions myself would be that it's harder to do research on such a small screen.

[vskr → thomasbk]

There will be virtual currency involved. So, when users participate and if they predict correctly they will earn virtual currency.

Most of the events in prediction markets involve something that user already knows what is going to happen.

[dear → vskr]

Virtual currency isn't real money and I doubt it would create enough incentive for people to take their participation seriously enough to give you accurate predictions. The only way is to use real money.

[adam]

We just built a prediction market iOS app for Inkling: https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/inkling-predictions/id549984...

It uses fantasy currency due to US law...