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SpaceX renting out their compute to competitors is what crashes the "AI company" notion. They are either datacenter company or an AI company - but it cannot be both.
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The fact that dozens of companies seem to have been able to produce great models, and the mid-tier ones are only months behind the frontier models tells me that just having a great model is not much of a moat. It may actually be having the physical stuff that makes all of this possible is the bigger revenue generator.

Data centers do not trade on 100x earnings, and if you believe that they should, then there are plenty that don't have rocket ship and social media companies attached to them.

Frontier models do not trade on 100x earnings either.

You can be both but you probably are not very good AI company if you have significant amount of extra computing to rent. Or you calculated your own demand significantly wrong somewhere. Which again does not make you great AI company...

> They are either datacenter company or an AI company - but it cannot be both.

why not?


Either you are in need of as much as compute as possible since you're building frontier AI models or you're not and you're just renting out the compute. And let's face it - Grok, if not failure, is just a toy.

Arguably Google is both (with GCP and Gemini).

From GP's point of view, Google is not a data center company because they're not renting out data centers to other companies; they're using them for their own usage.

SpaceX is an ISP with a sideline in rocket launches, and xAI is a neocloud with delusions of grandeur.



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