The dying gap doesn't have much effect at child bearing ages. The fertility gap is between between ~2.1 for conservatives (roughly replacement) and ~1.5 for liberals. To maintain political equilibrium liberals have to outpace conservatives in conversions or immigrants, or make more babies.
Absolutely is to some extent, research strongly suggests it's brain structure, specifically around the amygdala. Facial structure can also be used as a predicator.
Kosinski, M., Khambatta, P., & Wang, Y. (2024). Facial recognition technology and human raters can predict political orientation from images of expressionless faces even when controlling for demographics and self-presentation. American Psychologist, 79(7), 942–955. https://doi.org/10.1037/amp0001295
Rasmussen SHR, Ludeke SG, Klemmensen R. Using deep learning to predict ideology from facial photographs: expressions, beauty, and extra-facial information. Sci Rep. 2023 Mar 31;13(1):5257. doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-31796-1 PMID: 37002240; PMCID: PMC10066183.
Pedersen WS, Muftuler LT, Larson CL. Conservatism and the neural circuitry of threat: economic conservatism predicts greater amygdala-BNST connectivity during periods of threat vs safety. Soc Cogn Affect Neurosci. 2018 Jan 1;13(1):43-51. doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/scan/nsx133 PMID: 29126127; PMCID: PMC5793824.
Haas, I.J., Baker, M.N. & Gonzalez, F.J. Who Can Deviate from the Party Line? Political Ideology Moderates Evaluation of Incongruent Policy Positions in Insula and Anterior Cingulate Cortex. Soc Just Res 30, 355–380 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11211-017-0295-0
Kanai R, Feilden T, Firth C ...
Political Orientations Are Correlated with Brain Structure in Young Adults
Current Biology, 2011; 21, 677-680 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2011.03.017
I think the more interesting question is: are we, as a species, evolving away from conservatism centric biology over time? Or is it because we stopped putting lead into the environment? Because you can see the generational cohort differences over time.
Tangentially, I strongly believe this is related to why US religions are losing half of their members every generational cohort. This is covered in the below graphsaboutreligion.com posts, but unfortunately, they are paid and I don't have a way to unlock to share them. I will inquire with the author if I can compensate them to unlock these specific references.
Families transmit values via memes rather than genes. Politics is a meme competition and conservatives have a 2.1/1.5 advantage in reproducing meme transmitters. So without other interventions, liberals need about a 29% advantage in meme effectiveness for parity.
But those memes are more abstract, for example individual liberty. The modern application of that will lead to very different conclusions than the parents came to. Especially when you factor in the wacky paths modern cult-esque media tends to lead people down, and their kids getting to see the culmination of that.
Plus this "liberal vs conservative" dichotomy fell apart with the Republican party being taken over by destructive reactionaries. So personally as I've gotten older I've definitely gotten more conservative, but that has contributed to me voting Democrat rather than my previous Libertarian or overt protest vote.
By 2016, the gap had begun to appear in biomarker measures. By 2020, it was showing up in deaths from causes such as heart disease, cancer, and stroke. Since then, the gap has only widened. Between 2020 and 2022, only 0.2% of “very liberal” respondents died of internal causes, compared with 1.34% of “very conservative” respondents.
That's what happens when knee-jerk opposition to any form of expertise becomes a core tenant of a political philosophy. Conservatives in America have largely rejected the idea that reality is objective and knowable through applied observation and logic. Instead they choose to live in bubbles, believing known falsehoods like the idea that the Covid vaccine is worse than covid, or that vegetables are for pussies and real men only eat red meat.
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