Look, I know this is a tech forum and we don't claim to be good at the social sciences, but this is a central debate and r>g, the idea that the rate of return to capital tends to exceed economic growth over the course of history, is a major result from Piketty's Capital In The 21st Century that people interested in "grow the pie" vs "trickle down" really ought to be familiar with. Even if you disagree, you ought to be able to articulate why, and "the average includes winners and losers" ain't it.
"But life has improved, r>g couldn't have been true forever" -- last time the inequality bubble popped because of a great depression and two world wars. The capital was incinerated, metaphorically and literally. It's a cautionary tale and we should aspire to do better.
> It's a cautionary tale and we should aspire to do better.
Why is it a cautionary tale? Sounds like we should have a bunch of incinerations of capital, ideally let the capital mobilizers that are actually competent survive.
I'm suggesting deflationary contractions, but okay. Note that deflationary contractions in 1930 sucked because we didn't have solid supply chains, modern agriculture, liquid asset markets turbocharged with rapid information interchange etc. Might be worth trying in the 20X0s
weimar republic created hyperinflation, in response to deflation, and so at best its a second order effect with a not so subtle intervening policy that was the primary target of the backlash
Yes, dnautics is confused. In the early 20s Germany hyperinflated to pay reparations, they subsequently became allergic to inflationary policy, and then when the deflationary wave of the Great Depression hit in the late 20s they were allergic to the correct policy response, so they let deflation bite, and a certain Austrian fellow rode that pain into power.
I haven't read the source but for one, there wasn't really even a US dollar until 1935. When banks failed, and they did unlike now when they artificially don't, you lost everything. There was no FDIC. All of those mechanisms are artificial and serve to make the banking industry large and profitable.
Not to mention currency debasement, another aspect of the modern world that makes finance uniquely profitable and, really, white collar work existent in any major form at all. It's ingenious. Since capitalism is naturally deflationary, as competition removes all profit over the long term, let's interfere and make it so workers make less money every working day. Hence, in order to make even the same amount of money each year, one has to either rise in the hierarchy, or argue for raises, which is inherently risky.
Basically, before 1935, it was hard to accumulate that much wealth. It wasn't generally backed by any nation state guarantee. Real estate has always been a great store of wealth, but it has physical limitations. The world since 1935 is now a world of nation state wealth guarantees. The only reason this amount of wealth is allowed to occur, is because of it. We took a strange path since 2008, when the banks were not allowed to fail. Everything eventually comes to pass.
I'm surprised someone who picked the name "engineeringwoke" has no love for FDR. He's the GOAT!
The largest bank in the US is #14 on the S&P by market cap. If the Federal Reserve is a conspiracy to make banks profitable, it is doing a poor job. More to the point: I challenge anyone who doesn't like the Fed and the compromise it represents (money printer exists, but is guarded from the politicians by a council of 12) to name their alternative. Hard money? Politicians can print? You picked "hard money." Let's go!
Everyone who learns about the Cantillon Pump thinks they would love to run it in reverse. This is because they don't understand that it does not run in reverse. It is not symmetrical. They underestimate the pain of a deflationary shock, where everyone (namely your employer) gets an incentive to not participate in the economy and then stops participating in the economy (namely by employing you). Rent and debt is still due, of course. This is the pain that inspired the USA to split from Britain (scrip/specie). This is the pain of the Great Depression -- you threw out that 1935 date like it was the culmination of a Bond bad guy plot, not the capitulation of a country tired of deflation. We even have the counterfactual: Germany, having just escaped the Weimar inflation, decided in 1929 to take the deflationary response to the Great Depression. It led them to a very dark place.
Returning to the USA: they weren't called "robber barons" because they failed to accumulate wealth. Capitalism does not guarantee competition (quite the opposite, strong property rights are the nexus of anticompetitive opportunity) which does not remove all profit over the long term, it squeezes it onto assets, which is where that unearned income we were talking about originates from. If you have ever heard or given a business pitch, attended a class in business school, or listened to a VC for 30 seconds you have heard some heinously anticompetitive scheme and their plan to leverage it for personal gain by turning it into an asset they own. Network effects, platform effects, two sided markets, returns to scale, etc etc etc. Usually they don't work, but when they do and you get a stock or a deed or a title to a money fountain (exploitation fountain, seen from the other side) you get to stack trillions while the competition spends decades trying to cross your capitalism-created and capitalism-guaranteed moat.
Turns out you can have an inflationary adjustment and unwind inequality and boost the economy at the same time, so long as you remember to tax the rich. FDR sends his regards!
> This is because they don't understand that it does not run in reverse. It is not symmetrical. They underestimate the pain of a deflationary shock, where everyone (namely your employer) gets an incentive to not participate in the economy and then stops participating in the economy (namely by employing you).
If you think of inflation as money supply growth, or growth relative to gold, the economy has barely grown since 1971 when Bretton Woods was ended. However, the economy did grow in gold terms in the period beforehand. Why would that be? Is your theory from a textbook truly applicable or just a way of enforcing the current economic norms that heavily benefit nation states? If you force all assets to go up, you bleed your asset holders via tax as well. They don't want people to believe in ideas that could break their hegemony.
> Capitalism does not guarantee competition (quite the opposite, strong property rights are the nexus of anticompetitive opportunity) which does not remove all profit over the long term
This is a different conversation, regulatory versus monetary. It also weakens your r > g business book pseudoscience argument. I studied economics and finance enough, I don't need some cheap armchair economist slag.
> tax the rich
Nice, if I didn't need any more proof that this is just another diatribe based on another faddish idea about how to fix the economy. Wait, did I say that earlier? Something about how ideas can be used to control the bounds of policy, the Overton window.
> Capitalism does not guarantee competition (quite the opposite, strong property rights are the nexus of anticompetitive opportunity) which does not remove all profit over the long term, it squeezes it onto assets, which is where that unearned income we were talking about originates from. If you have ever heard or given a business pitch, attended a class in business school, or listened to a VC for 30 seconds you have heard some heinously anticompetitive scheme and their plan to leverage it for personal gain by turning it into an asset they own. Network effects, platform effects, two sided markets, returns to scale, etc etc etc. Usually they don't work, but when they do and you get a stock or a deed or a title to a money fountain (exploitation fountain, seen from the other side) you get to stack trillions while the competition spends decades trying to cross your capitalism-created and capitalism-guaranteed moat.
I made this point many times a number of years back and gave up. It's incredible how an entire message board of HN that supposedly is extremely pro market competition, seems to entirely be unaware (or just collectively puts it's head in the sand) that the #1 strategy that most VC backed firms seem to target is "figure out out as quickly as possible how we can get out of having to compete with others". And they do so under the name of "a moat".
Building a moat is one of the most anti-market actions that can be taken. You hear commenters post non-stop about the ills of communism as it avoids market competition, but somehow every seems to just gloss over or ignore the fact that moats are designed to do the same thing and cause the same issue. Terrible allocation of capital.
I suppose it depends on how broadly you define "innovation".
Lots of companies grow because of, among other things: regulatory capture, regulatory arbitrage, questionable use of other people's IP, offshoring, misclassification of employees/contractors, profit shifting and transfer pricing, subsidized predatory below-cost pricing, dark patterns, aggressive collection and monetization of user data, acqui-hires to stifle competition, implementing high-switching costs to create vendor lock-in, round-tripping, channel-stuffing, business models that intentionally externalize costs, outright fraud.
I would say it slightly differently: The average rate of growth comes from the average of the successful and unsuccessful innovators and non-innovators.
Bill Gates' wealth grew much more after he left Microsoft than while he was CEO. Was that wealth earned through innovation? No. He simply owned something that became more valuable as other people labored to innovate.
Institutional innovation continues to pay off after you leave. You will make more over time if you build a company with a moat, if you set up a farm team system so your company can continue to innovate, if you eschew cash grabs in favor of solid customer service. If you take away the incentive to set up a continuous wealth generator, you will see founders spend their last year as CEO looting the company instead.
When I build something for myself, a main goal is for it to work without my constant input so I can do something else. This is especially important for people who are capable of creating institutions. What if Elon Musk was stuck babysitting PayPal, or would lose all the payout from Neuralink the second he wanted to move on?
Also, a large share of the value I add to society is attributable to the person who set up the institution I'm working in. I work hard and am friendly but without someone setting up an organization that employs programmers usefully, the most I can do for you is fix your Wifi. I would vote to keep paying the builders after they leave.
So what? He owned the stock, he gets to share in the gains.
If we believed that the only people who should be morally allowed to benefit from asset appreciation are the people who actively work for that company, the entire economy would collapse.
For example, every pension fund, endowment, retirement fund, etc. are all invested in financial assets that they had NO role in. All they do is own something that become more valuable as other people labor and innovate! Shall we cast them as evil capitalists?
Growth does not ONLY come from innovation. It can come from bad actor or even simply non-innovaive strategies such as acquistition (which can lead to monopoly, as capital tends to amass in large centers / the hands of the few, per Marx). Other bad faith / anti-competitive / non-innovative strategies include regulatory capture, lobbying, doing illegal things (and hoping to not get caught / paying a slap-on-the-wrist fine that would be impossible for smaller companies), etc.
Growth comes from innovation, and innovators get rewarded with faster growth as non-innovators decline.