I still don't know why all these concern about nuclear weapons with LLMs. It is not that if an entity (A country) wants to develop a nuclear weapons that the resources they need for such a program and huge infrastructure and scientific enterprise would need an LLM to teach them anything. Knowing how to develop one is not a closed secret but getting in secret is impossible without the whole world knowing.
So I wouldn't be able to develop a nuclear weapons with the resources of drug cartal (as an example) using Claude in secret.
In particular: *all the knowledge that AI has of nuclear weapons is freely available on the internet*. It's not superhuman, and there's no secret sauce data. If you just study the same PDFs and blog posts it has, you will acquire the same abilities. I cannot imagine anyone with the intent and immense financial and political resources to actually build a weapon would say that some study time is the only thing stopping them from detonating a nuke.
It is pretty convenient for the labs to frame the conversation around this though, since it is easy to address, very few paying customers are rejected, and sounds scary (so surely the less scary sounding stuff must be solved right?)
My hypothesis is that making the knowledge of how this stuff works accessible to the public results in a lot of false-positives (from people just playing around) that intelligence agencies have to then sift through / tune filters against; which creates a noise floor for real foreign nuke programs to hide in.
So governments ban anything that could result in false positives (since nobody needs to be doing any of that stuff outside of designated labs anyway), to lower that noise floor; to in turn make catching the foreign nuke programs tractable.
(It's a bit like how fancy mansions always have a completely flat and barren part of the property between an outer perimeter and the start of any gardens/outbuildings/water features/etc. That barren area is a killbox: since nothing is supposed to be there, anything at all that does appear there is a valid target for the manion's guards to shoot at [or otherwise engage with], without needing to get a clear identification and command approval first. This wouldn't work if the killbox was covered in vision-obscuring decorative features; nor if the mansion had employees, animals, etc. that had a valid reason to wander into the killbox. So such things are prevented, in order to make the problem of perimeter security tractable.)
Usually measures like these aren’t to stop the people with those kinds of deep resources.
With everything, there is a much bigger group of people in the middle that have “some resources” and “some desire” that these measures are surprisingly effective against.
Raise a $20 item by $1 and suddenly there’s fewer interested people, even though the cost difference is minor. Well, minor to some people but not to others.
But is limiting this information in an LLM the right move? Well that’s a different question.
True for fission bombs. Less true for fusion bombs. The principal makeup and manufacturing of fusion device parts like tampers are still unknown to the public. Having a supply of HEU does not tell you how to assemble a functional triple stage device or how to utilize tritium, an isotope that measurably decreases in purity by the day.
The purpose was to clarify that the obstacles to constructing modern nuclear weapons is not accurately characterized as "99%" fuel-related. Even if a group were to obtain a stockpile of ready HEU and plutonium-239, there is knowledge they simply will not have because they did not spend a trillion USD testing different bomb configurations last century. The difference in yield is two orders of magnitude.
Aka this has zero relevance to the proliferation discussion. Anyone having the problem you are describing long ago already created a basic nuclear stockpile.
Notably, neither China nor Russia seemed to have issues creating Thermonuclear weapons despite the shortcomings you identified either.
On the nuclear side I think the danger is purely reputational damage towards the company behind the LLM.
If a journalist can prompt the LLM to tell them how to build a nuclear warhead. Even if the output text is nothing specific, or not even correct they can find an “expert” who will claim on the record that the description is plausible and at least directionally correct. Even if there is nothing in there a first year physics student wouldn’t already know. The journalist could then twist that story into a “company X’s LLM told us how to build a nuclear weapon”. It would be a PR disaster.
The real barriers to someone starting their own nuclear weapons program in their shed is not knowledge but materials. They won’t have the right kind and right quantity of fissile material. And if they try to acquire it they will stick out like a sore thumb. You can’t buy that stuff. And even just acquiring the refining capacity would be suss. It would ring all kind of alarm bells to the kind of inteligence agencies whose job is to monitor these things.
I’m a lot less certain about biological dangers. Setting up a lab where you can make dangerous biological materials require a lot less stuff. Therefore a lot more plausible that someone could hide their lab. There is also a lot more opportunity to disguise such a lab as something legitimate. Therefore lack of know-how is more of a limiting factor there.
He didn't create a nuclear reactor, this is a common misconception. It even says this in the wikipedia article.
He basically got a bunch of radioactive stuff and put it together. He wasn't anywhere close to making a nuclear reactor let alone a nuclear weapon. For a weapon you need isotopes which he didn't have access to.
I'm reminded of when my son, who was six at the time, came into the house and announced that he and the neighbor's boy, nine, were building a bomb, and that he needed to get some stuff from the pantry. When I investigated what exactly was going on, they were putting "hot" things like black pepper and Tabasco into a plastic bowl and were going to "set it off" with a match.
Thankfully, that complete failure seems to have been the end of either of their mad scientist careers, as they are now twenty and twenty-three, and both well-adjusted, peaceful members of the community.
When I was 5 or so, I was convinced that if I dropped a bowl of hot water into a bucket of cold water, I'd get big explosion. That experiment yielding lukewarm water ended my mad scientist career.
When I was 7 or 8 a friend and I crimped the heads off strike-anywhere match sticks, wrapped them in foil, and struck them with hammers and rocks. They were quite loud, one even set off a sound-activated toy inside the house.
I make no claims as to how well adjusted I am, but I've at least survived 40-odd years of life since then.
Age eleven and had access to a chemistry set that a relative gifted. It had sulfur, but the saltpeter, and charcoal came from elsewhere. The 1960s encyclopedia had the instructions.
When I was younger in rural Appalachia, my local drug store still sold "chemicals" and I purchased salt peter and sulfur and proceeded to attempt to make smoke bombs. Didn't have a double boiler, so attempted to make it in the microwave. Needless to say, it didn't go too well.
I blame my dad though, he found the recipe online and printed it off at work to bring to me.
Of course. "tried to" being key words in the comment. If he had the help of Claude at the time, how much more dangerous would his bumbling have been?
A real nuclear engineer with the knowledge he needed would also have said "no, don't do that and I won't help you." We are programming the knowledge into the ai agent. Giving ai a little discretion makes sense too.
>Of course. "tried to" being key words in the comment.
Fair enough, I misread your original comment.
The broader point stands that the limitation on creating nuclear weapons and reactors is not knowledge but materials. Even if he himself had a PhD in nuclear physics he still couldn't have built one in his backyard because he wouldn't be able to get the materials. A nuclear physicist can't build a reactor without materials anymore than a pilot can fly without an airplane.
I think the point is intent. Sure, no chance of success to build a reactor. But he created a radiation hazard situation all the same.
If a nuclear engineer enabled and instructed him, would there not be liability for the hazard? If ml is going to be an expert instructor for nuclear, hacking, bio hacking, virus research, do the peddlers of the ai product escape ethical or legal responsibility just because "its an app?"
A difference of degree is a difference of kind here. If something previously required years to full-time study to learn, but now you can kind of somewhat stumble your way through it and get somewhat close to the result, you should not disregard that with a snarky one-liner IMO.
E.g. look at programming - people who don't know how what a compiler is, are making things that I could only make after a few years into my programming journey.
You obviously get the same results in chemistry or nuclear physics or whatever, the models are heavily trained on code in particular, but if there's a chance that we've reduced the ease of committing certain kinds of crime that were previously gate-kept by knowledge, we should know about it.
I agree LLMs can be harmful and that the companies behind them should be held liable to some extent, for example the recent news with Google being held responsible for their AI's defamation.[1]
This is a pretty different argument though. The comment that started this thread was talking about LLMs making potentially dangerous knowledge more available to bad actors, now we're talking about LLMs giving personally harmful advice.
You asked:
>If he had the help of Claude at the time, how much more dangerous would his bumbling have been?
Probably less? Even if you removed all the guardrails from Claude it would've likely told him his reactor plan wouldn't work and that he would have a high chance of poisoning himself and the environment.
> If a nuclear engineer enabled and instructed him, would there not be liability for the hazard?
I bet the professional would be able to sate the kid's curiosity safely without creating excessive risks.
I've come across detailed instructions on how to synthesize sarin gas on the internet. Anyone who follows those instructions will probably die horribly. I still thought it was pretty interesting.
I think you're picking the wrong example. If I had some sticks, a bit of mud and a few leaves, whether or not I had Claude wouldn't make a difference to my ability to make a nuclear weapon. There are probably better examples of ways where unmediated AI might facilitate something horrible, although probably on a smaller scale.
Right, which is exactly what elashri is objecting to. elashri said "Why do LLMs have restrictions on nuclear science", and IncandescentGas was explaining why they think those guardrails are a good idea. You're just agreeing with them.
I just love this whole "forbidden knowledge" schtick the AI safety dweebs have stuck up their butt. Is this really going to stop anybody determined enough to make that kind of outcome?
There is an extremely narrow band of things that the AI shouldn't be answering, and that is generally immediately-actionable advice that allows someone to build something of harm to others. But even then, in an age where Tor, bittrent, i2p, abliterated local models, etc are freely available, let alone numerous books and online resources, is there even a point? Is it worth fully compromising the principles of free agency to an increasingly oppressed populace?
But instead of that we are handing the keys to regressive and repressive governments to order the suppression of any knowledge they deem inconvenient. I really doubt anyone is going to take a principled stance when the company's party minders threaten local staff with a rubber hose or incarceration.
I'm sure China et al are already doing this.
For the past 30-40 years humanity has received an incredible gift in these sand-powered thinking brainboxes. A gift that allows the common man to empower himself with a force multiplier towards his own success, and now access to superintelligence the likes of which few have ever seen. These can be tools to destroy the oppression that governs our lives from foolhardy, greedy, bootlicking control freaks. And here we are squandering it.
> These can be tools to destroy the oppression that governs our lives
So far it seems that the clearest use for these tools is to enhance, rather than destroy, oppression.
1. Suppression / elimination of white collar jobs
2. Negative cognitive effects, especially for young people
3. Accelerated decline in social media / information ecosystems. Increasing polarization, hard to tell fact from fiction.
4. Environmental impacts: increased energy usage means more carbon in the atmosphere, climate change accelerates.
5. Software security incidents increasing. Hard for individuals and small organizations to defend themselves.
6. “Power to think” vested in a very small group of organizations/labs. Doing work which should only require a computer and freely-available software will now be gated by expensive subscriptions. Once you “vibe code” a significant portion of your software you’re locked in and cannot go back to maintaining it without frontier-model level assistance.
> I just love this whole "forbidden knowledge" schtick the AI safety dweebs have stuck up their butt.
It's just the latest incarnation of a timeless debate. In the 1970s and 1980s it was about the Anarchists's Cookbook, which was revived again in the 1990s when it started circulating on the Internet. There are many timeless debates, but the debate over weapon-making knowledge is much more concrete and predictable.
Security theather is easy and gets lots of eyeballs. Actual security is hard and no one cares.
Which one do you think soon-to-ipo companies are going to pick?
He would not have succeeded in making a real reactor even with AI, because AI can't magically give you a large quantity of uranium metal! JFC the AI hysteria is unreal.
I don't think the concern should really be "would he make a reactor successfully?", but "would he make an even larger mess than his pile of radioactive materials amounted to?".
This just seems like a not great example to make that point though. Since whatever Claude tells the kid looking to build a reactor or even bomb is almost certainly going to be more grounded and professional than:
Instead it would send them on a wild goose chase for unobtainable isotopes, centrifuges, heavy water, etc where the biggest risk is probably getting reported to the police by some chemical or industrial equipment supplier. Which is a better outcome compared to contaminating their home with radiation and exposing anyone they interact with.
You'd maybe get a sketchy but near-viable plan that could be dangerous if asked for a dirty bomb, but there the danger would more be the conventional explosives and not where to source radioisotopes, as it was already common knowledge that most residential smoke detectors contained americium until recently.
The concern here is not if an amateur attempt to make a reactor, hack a bank, bioengineer a medicine/poison is successful or not. Interactive and instructive access to some forms of knowledge used to come with discretion along side instruction.
Yes, perhaps your swearing at me in this context is a little hysterical
A bunch of radioactive stuff together is basically the definition of a nuclear reactor though. They even call it a natural nuclear reactor if uranium ore is in sufficient abundance in nature.
>A bunch of radioactive stuff together is basically the definition of a nuclear reactor though.
It really isn't.
A pile of radioactive waste isn't a reactor. Marie Curie's notes are famously contaminated with radioactive materials but they aren't a reactor. This is about as close as the boy scout got.
The Oklo fossil reactor is unique because it happened to form in the right circumstances to produce a fission chain reaction, which does make it a reactor. Not every uranium mine is a reactor, in fact this is the only one known.
Also note that due to isotope decay in the ore, a natural reactor is no longer possible. From the wikipedia article:
"A key factor that made the reaction possible was that, at the time the reactor went critical 1.7 billion years ago, the fissile isotope 235U made up about 3.1% of the natural uranium, which is comparable to the amount used in some of today's reactors. [...] the current abundance of 235U in natural uranium is only 0.72%. A natural nuclear reactor is therefore no longer possible on Earth without heavy water or graphite."
Another fascinating detail from the article, due to our understanding of fission, we can get some incredible results:
"The concentrations of xenon isotopes, found trapped in mineral formations 2 billion years later, make it possible to calculate the specific time intervals of reactor operation: approximately 30 minutes of criticality followed by 2 hours and 30 minutes of cooling down"
The only hard thing about nuclear weapons is getting the radioactive material. By the time you get your bachelors degree, every nuclear engineering or physics student knows enough of how and why nukes work. Every nation that built a gun-type device successfully made theirs on their first attempt. Implosion takes some engineering, trial & error.
If I understand right, the hard part is purifying the radioactive material. Even if you have access to a uranium mine, there's a lot of work to filter the U-235 from the U-238 or to breed it into plutonium.
It's even harder if you start with other sources. But if you could figure out filtering it, a cubic kilometer of sea water should be enough for a bomb.
Uranium is not even that rare, it's just that when chemistry fails at separating atoms, you have to use physics, and 3 ~proton~ (EDIT: neutron) masses is very little to work with
two scenarios i could think of where there's additional risk for bio/nuclear weapons 1) basement lab leaks and 2) improving quality of execution for shops that are already resourced enough to hire experts but maybe they're not that great.
i think the correct answer is probably to funnel more money to global (bio)security initiatives and maybe use ai leverage as a way to get more of the world on board. (some kind of access to nvidia or cloud ai or whatever in exchange for policy commitments deal- while that leverage lasts).
Yeah a striking thing if you read the Rhodes atomic bomb book is, actually the concept occurred to multiple people in multiple countries; the problem is the resources required to actually pull it off.
For an example of how closely this is monitored see the Oklo fossil reactors[1]
The proportion of fissile isotopes being mined was off by a fraction of a percent, which caused the French government to launch an investigation. It turns out that millions of years ago the site had formed a natural fission reactor which depleted some of the fissile isotopes
You need highly educated individuals, a massive amount of energy expenditure, a massive facility to house your centrifuges, and an active mine to dig up nuclear materials.
It isn't impossible to keep such a secret, but practically it would be incredibly difficult just through the energy requirements and mining scale which would be hard to hide without anybody asking what exactly are you mining and processing.
Don't need much area, depends on the concentration of radioactives. I have a small mine that's just a pegmatite body about the size of a house which produces almost marble-sized chunks of a thorium-uranium mixed metamict mineral (I suspect samarskite but Raman and XRD can't give any ID,) you'd barely notice it from a private airplane's typical flying height, however you could dig the entirety of it up and you'd have enough unprocessed uranium for some real fun.
You need enough people to work on it that some information will leak, and the facilities needed to build nuclear power are pretty big (uranium refinement, etc.), big enough to be visible on satellite footage. Mostly the first point.
My guess would be that sales of the high-tech gear you need, like Uranium centrifuges, are strongly sales/export controlled. Probably someone would also notice if you start mining Uranium ore.
It requires very large, high powered centrifuges and tons of uranium. Requires an infrastructure project that is visible from space, even underground. And projects that large are difficult to keep secret anyway.
you're not supposed to spell it out loud. next thing you'll be saying that a gun type nuclear bomb is easier to build than an implosion type nuclear bomb, and then we'll all be off to the races. I mean camps I mean wait shit.
Any large and well resourced enough entity that is interested in building a nuclear weapon already knows how difficult it is to enrich uranium to purity levels necessary for a weapon. It's not exactly a secret.
None of the LLM safeguards designed to prevent users from developing any four-little-ponies-of-the-apocalypse (nuclear, chemical, biological, cyber) capabilities are all that coherent. It looks more like performative liability avoidance than anything else, comparable to the 3D printer panic.
Eg, a prompt like “I want to design a radioactive element detection system that can specifically identify reactor fission products and neutron-capture actinides for environmental monitoring purposes” won’t hit any initial barriers, even though such a device is needed for monitoring a uranium enrichment / plutonium separation system. The LLM will give you a complete graduate-level education in radioactive nuclide physics and chemistry except for specific recipes, spectral wavelengths, etc., which you have to go look up yourself in publicly available research databases. It’s all rather nonsensical IMO.
However, any LLM will give you a step-by-step recipe and walkthrough for frying a turkey in a hot oil turkey frier, which you’d think could easily go wrong and result in severe burns, a fire, and lawsuits against the LLM provider, so go figure.
Not really. I used to work at one of the national engineering labs (NREL - which only dealt with renewable energy like solar panels and windmills at that time). There was an open source project we wanted to use when converting a VB6 project to .NET. One of the license conditions was "no weapons of mass destruction". DOE builds and owns all of America's nuclear weapons, which are leased to the Department of Defense. Needless to say, the developer was unwilling to offer an alternative license which meant that we could not use the project.
It was an awesome thing that generated IL code on the fly. And I got to mention it in job interviews for years. When the tech lead asked "can you write 2 functions with the same signature, that only differ in return type in .NET?" I would say "do you want the interview answer or do you really want to do this?" which would pretty much stun the interviewer. The answer is pretty much "no, you cannot do it in any high level language, but if you write IL code, you can, and here's an open source project that demonstrates it".
> g. You may not use or otherwise export or re-export the Licensed Application except as authorized by United States law and the laws of the jurisdiction in which the Licensed Application was obtained. In particular, but without limitation, the Licensed Application may not be exported or re-exported (a) into any U.S.-embargoed countries or (b) to anyone on the U.S. Treasury Department's Specially Designated Nationals List or the U.S. Department of Commerce Denied Persons List or Entity List. By using the Licensed Application, you represent and warrant that you are not located in any such country or on any such list. You also agree that you will not use these products for any purposes prohibited by United States law, including, without limitation, the development, design, manufacture, or production of nuclear, missile, or chemical or biological weapons.
Though it doesn't try to identify if the computer you're running it on is in a weapons lab and forbid playing music... yet
It’s moral panic. People need big unambiguously evil things to be scared of, and most are too lazy to think of one for themselves, so they glom onto whichever one is presented to them / caters to their community
I assure you that you did not need an LLM to engage in, ahem, risky shenanigans, much before all this AI was ever a thing.
Sincerely, a former engineering student.
(Put another way - extracting for eg meth - or any such "dangerous"/illicit thing is stupidly easy for any engineering graduate who actually paid attention to their coursework. Hell, there are/were forums on one of the biggest red-colored, YC associated social media platforms that would tell you the steps for personal usage of these things.)
I don't doubt it. Bleach + ammonia is something anyone can make.
But I rather suspect there are improvements to be made in the realm that are a lot easier than building a uranium enrichment centrifuge hall under a mountain.
Do note that I'm not condoning lowering the bar. I'm merely pointing out that the bar was already quite low, and the current position of the bar is a small incremental change to anyone who actually knew where the bar truly lay to begin with.
I strongly recommend you read the book Amerithrax [0]. The book gives some historical examples of malicious groups [1][2] trying to use biological agents. Also, it is far harder to weaponize biological weapons than people think.
> In 1984, 751 people suffered food poisoning in The Dalles, Oregon, United States, due to the deliberate contamination of salad bars at ten local restaurants with Salmonella. A group of prominent followers of Rajneesh (also known as Osho) led by Ma Anand Sheela had hoped to incapacitate the voting population of the city so that their own candidates would win the 1984 Wasco County elections.[2] The incident was the first and largest bioterrorist attack in U.S. history.
Tried to take over a town by making all the voters too sick to vote on election day. This event is why all buffets & salad bars in the US now have sneeze shields.
> Aum Shinrikyo operated the most extensive biological weapons program by a non-state actor ever discovered. Aum considered a range of agents, but only seriously attempted to obtain and disperse Bacillus anthracis and botulinum toxin, the causative agents of anthrax and botulism. With the 2001 anthrax attacks, it comprises the only attempts to use anthrax as a weapon not attributed to a state program.
Tried multiple times to weaponize anthrax and failed. This was a group that made an automated factory to build AK-47s. Eventually, they spread sarin nerve agent in the Tokyo subway.
> Tried multiple times to weaponize anthrax and failed. This was a group that made an automated factory to build AK-47s. Eventually, they spread sarin nerve agent in the Tokyo subway.
What's most worrying is, Russia showed that you can use carfentanyl / fentanyl for the very same purpose, and that kind of stuff is something you can get shipped by the kilos as "research chemicals" from China or make it yourself.
I'm absolutely sure that even if claude gave me step by step instructions, I'd still be unable to produce a bio weapon. People fail at mixing milk and flour to produce a cake, and we expect them to produce weapons?
The ones with the required knowledge probably already know how to produce them, with nothing but public, easily searchable information.
I mean, the information is out there. The people who really want it already have it. It's not some massive secret. It really doesn't matter if Claude can or can't tell you how to build a nuclear bomb, because people already know how to do it.
The problem is that you need the power of a state or a massive corporation to come anywhere close to getting the materials to make a nuclear bomb. Knowledge of how to make a nuke isn't the threat.
If AI is a threat at all here, it would be in figuring out a simpler way to make a nuclear bomb, but that is highly theoretical, so what exactly are we putting up guardrails to protect against?
> Knowing how to develop one is not a closed secret but getting in secret is impossible without the whole world knowing.
You can get away with a dirty contamination bomb and that detonating in down town Manhattan will scare the shit out of millions of people even the ones in New Jersey. Or, you know, just fly a plane into a really tall building and get the state you are attacking itself to get into a hysteria breakdown.
But yeah I agree with you. There is no point in these restrictions except for government bureaucrats to gain power and control over a domain.
It still lowers the bar to have an interactive encyclopedia that can diagnose your issue at hand. Maybe you can divide your team by two, or reduce your development time.
So I wouldn't be able to develop a nuclear weapons with the resources of drug cartal (as an example) using Claude in secret.