No, the early units from 2022 were essentially beta testing for both Tesla and their early customers (Pepsi, etc.). Wiki says: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Semi
> Volume production of the Semi started on April 29, 2026.
Note volume in that statement.
You wrote: "If the battery is too heavy". The 2026 version of Tesla Semi is 450kg lighter than 2022 model because they switched the internal voltage from 12W to 48W, which reduces required wire gauges.
You wrote: "The economics you need to look at are dollars/hour/kg delivered." The original idea for a heavy haul electric truck came from within Tesla. Senior execs wanted to know how they could reduce transport costs for parts manufactured in Fremont, Calif to the Gigafactory in Reno, Nevada. They were using heavy haul diesel trucks to move these parts.
> the charge time too long
PepsiCo has been driving Tesla Semis since 2022. They have multiple "megachargers" installed on both ends (factory and various warehouses). Google tells me: "allowing the trucks to recharge to roughly 70-80% capacity in about 30 to 45 minutes." That is plenty fast for a truck that needs to load/unload. Tesla recently released a video of a 1.2MW charge session. See: https://x.com/tesla_semi/status/2006431772360474841
Everything that has actually happened so far with the Semi is that it didn't work as advertised and was deeply unpopular. As ever, the future that Tesla paints is extremely rosy, and suggests we should disregard what has happened so far. There is nothing whatsoever to indicate that Semi will actually work to the extent advertised and actually be desired by anyone - especially in the current anti-green climate in the USA, with no subsidies for electrification of the kind Pepsi used to buy the tiny pilot program.
Note that they never announced that the original run of the Semi would be just tiny. When they unveiled it in 2022, they explicitly said that this was the production version, as opposed to the 2017 concept. They even had a few more (still small 100-200 count) contracts where they kept delaying because they couldn't deliver enough - again suggesting that they were having problems, not intentionally running a pilot program.
> Everything that has actually happened so far with the Semi is that it didn't work as advertised and was deeply unpopular.
I hate asking this question: "Sources?" If this was true, why does PepsiCo/Frito Lay continue to use Tesla Semi heavy haul electic trucks?
> no subsidies for electrification
This is factually incorrect. California has a massive subsidy programme for electric trucks -- as I understand, the highest/largest for any state in the United States.
They are operating 100 trucks that they bought with subsidy money - out of probably 10k trucks or more that they use in the USA. I'm not claiming the Semi is completely non-functional, it's obviously a real working vehicle. But this doesn't prove in any way that the Semi is actually as cheap and reliable as it was advertised as - if it were, why didn't Pepsi order far, far more?
We're certainly not as far along with the electrification of heavy duty trucks as we are with light duty cars, but the Semi seems fairly popular where it's suitable.
> but the Semi seems fairly popular where it's suitable.
What are you basing this on? Again, they have sold 200 trucks in 4 years. There are some hundreds of thousands of trucks being used in the USA alone. Tesla themselves are claiming they are going to produce (and presumably try to sell) 50k trucks per year. So, by any possible measure so far, Semi has basically 0 adoption. Maybe this is strictly based on production issues and there is huge un serviced demand - I admit this is a possibility, theoretically. But I don't see any reason to actually believe it, and certainly neither the current sales, nor the link you provided, in any way show that this demand will materialize. We'll see soon enough, I guess.
They claim 5-15k trucks produced in 2026, but the company who apparently ordered those 370 will only get 50 in 2026, per the article you shared. The numbers are not adding up.
I think all signs keep pointing to another huge flop by the end of the year, and that Semi will remain a small niche product that various companies order a handful of and never go on to get more.
370 trucks is also still a tiny order, for a truck that supposedly is cheaper to operate than any other on the market, in the midst of an oil crisis no less.
Like I mentioned, I think dry cathode 4680 production is key, and I think an earlier video from the same person discuses what they believe is equipment for a dry cathode line that will be set up inside the semi factory.
It took Tesla a year just to get Model 3 up production from nearly nothing over the first few months to 4k+ units/week, and the semi is larger/more complex. I'd be surprised if we saw 500+ units/month by December.
While high oil prices are attractive in terms of investment, if oil companies aren't very confident about making large/fast investments in this climate, I don't EV manufacturers are going to be.
My guess is that Tesla will gradually ramp production in a cost effective way, like they have in the past. It's better to miss a timeline and deliver a cost-effective/competitive product than the other way around.
You wrote: "If the battery is too heavy". The 2026 version of Tesla Semi is 450kg lighter than 2022 model because they switched the internal voltage from 12W to 48W, which reduces required wire gauges.
You wrote: "The economics you need to look at are dollars/hour/kg delivered." The original idea for a heavy haul electric truck came from within Tesla. Senior execs wanted to know how they could reduce transport costs for parts manufactured in Fremont, Calif to the Gigafactory in Reno, Nevada. They were using heavy haul diesel trucks to move these parts.
PepsiCo has been driving Tesla Semis since 2022. They have multiple "megachargers" installed on both ends (factory and various warehouses). Google tells me: "allowing the trucks to recharge to roughly 70-80% capacity in about 30 to 45 minutes." That is plenty fast for a truck that needs to load/unload. Tesla recently released a video of a 1.2MW charge session. See: https://x.com/tesla_semi/status/2006431772360474841