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we'd need some real fundamental breakthroughs

What sort of breakthroughs are you thinking of?



No idea, and I don't think anyone does, hence the prediction that it won't happen anytime soon. Either we need perfect simulations (seems almost impossible) for training at scale or fundamental algorithmic breakthroughs in learning from very sparse data that we can collect in the real world.


Why can’t it learn from, say, YouTube videos?




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