Ask HN: What is your prediction for the price of computer parts in 2026?

[wand3r]

I am considering doing a build but the pricing makes me want to gag. RAM pricing particularly seems to be climbing aggressively with no end in sight. I feel like I should build a computer ASAP and buy as much as I can afford now. Due to AI there will be significant pressure on RAM and GPUs IMO. There is a rumor that Samsung will pull out of the NAND/Storage market. In a situation where there is a problem in Taiwan, CPUs would increase drastically. What are your predictions? Do you think if you were to hold out 6-12 months things would improve? Maybe tariffs or some other factor will change and pricing will fall? What do you think the general parts market trends are for 2026?

[tim-tday]

Up and up till the crash then down like a rock. If you can predict the timing of the crash you could be very rich. The way I’d do it is attempt to calculate the available loans the AI companies can take out the rate that those loans are being taken out. When the money runs out the music stops and everyone without a seat has to go out in the cold.

[mikewarot]

When I need computers, I tend to purchase them from a computer recycling company. I don't have a GPU, or any high-end computing needs.

I suspect once the bubble pops, prices will drop 50% on pretty much everything. Unfortunately, core inflation is well over the official rate, so the days of hardware getting cheaper over time are now gone.