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Why would you set the probability at 1/3rd? It feels closer to 1/100 at most.

They've admitted the documents, if they're anywhere, are buried in a file cabinet at Iron Mountain. You can set a lower limit on the amount of labor required to produce the document. Activision is not going to go on this quest if the labor required * chance of the document existing exceeds the amount they can win in a lawsuit.



What you’re describing is a risk/reward approach to decision making. But in practice many execs do not follow this calculus.




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