AI data centers have an impossibly short runway to achieve profitability

[stalfosknight]

https://futurism.com/future-society/ai-data-centers-finances

[greyadept]

> […] the industry’s actual AI revenue is closer to $20 billion annually […]

I’m shocked, is it really this small? I’ve had some trouble finding a source for this number.

[bix6 → greyadept]

$55B in this one

https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-case-against-generative-ai/

> Mea Culpa! I have said a few times “$40 billion” is the total amount of AI revenue in 2025, and I need to correct the record. $35 billion is what hyperscalers will make this year (roughly), and when you include OpenAI, Anthropic and other startups, the amount is around $55 billion. If you include neoclouds, this number increases by about $6.1 billion. In any case, this doesn’t dramatically change my thesis.

[raphman → greyadept]

No, the article incorrectly cites/summarizes the original blog post [1] which indeed seems to pull some numbers out of thin air:

> "I’m going to use a bunch of numbers here that I believe to be directionally correct,"

> "Let’s start with total datacenter spend for 2025. Insiders think it’s going to clock in at around $400 billion."

(in the US? worldwide?)

> "I am sure I’m off by a few percent in these categories, but I’m relying on AI and we all know it’s still imperfect."

> "the AI datacenters to be built in 2025 will suffer $40 billion of annual depreciation, while generating somewhere between $15 and $20 billion of revenue."

In a follow-up article [2], the author says that he learned that the investments probably have much less than the 10 years of depreciation time he originally assumed. Again, no external sources are linked.

> "Personal self-doubts disappeared, and high-placed individuals reached out to share their epiphanies "

So, it seems the author estimated how much money will be invested in AI datacenters in 2025. The 20 billion of annual revenue mentioned in the article are just the share of all AI revenue for these new data centers. And these numbers have just been estimated by the author - apparently with the help of AI.

While the article and the blog posts may have some merit, it seems all based on some guy's assumptions and conversations he claims to have had.

[1] https://pracap.com/global-crossing-reborn/

[2] https://pracap.com/an-ai-addendum/

[inemesitaffia → raphman]

Futurism is slop

[Cyclone_ → greyadept]

I am assuming that when they say AI they just mean LLMs and not other cases of deep learning. Even so I would agree the $20 billion seems low.

[leptons → Cyclone_]

I'm just surprised that people pay to be lied to constantly by LLMs. I guess the politicians have normalized lying, so as long as the LLM says what you want it to, why not pay for that.