More than half of vehicles sold in China currently are battery electric or plug in hybrids. Similar for 25% of global vehicle sales as of this year. Batteries have already won, it’s just how fast they scale up that’s up for discussion.
This joke was funny a decade ago. EVs have been practical for ages now. See how well early model Teslas fared. Some people doing 1-2 million miles. 300k miles is not uncommon.
You don't need revolutionary batteries (similarly you don't need next generation nuclear plants, ordinary ones create so immense amount of wealth for generations). Batteries improved like 10-15% since early Teslas. Similarly motor/aero/electronics efficiency. Overall 30% gain in range. If right charge infrastructure it's perfectly enough for 99% of passenger cars.
It was funny a decade ago, now it’s no longer funny… but it’s still completely relevant. Battery bullshit is still as prevalent as ever.
Toyota, for example, is seemingly trying to outdo Musk’s “self driving next year” claims with their own “solid state batteries next year” claims. Toyota have been making these promises for nearly a decade now, and it looks like Musk’s lies will come true before Toyota ever ships a single solid state battery to a customer.
When it comes to new battery tech, I treat “shipping tomorrow” as identical to “our engineers came up with a crazy new idea yesterday”.
They have even been some next-gen battery products that actually launched and actually got reviewed by “legitimate“ YouTubers, and later turned out to be not as advertised. As far as I’m concerned, it’s all bullshit until it’s in the hands of independent labs.
- CATL currently manufactures around 40% of the worlds EV batteries. They know how to scale manufacturing.
- LFP batteries do not catch fire or explode.
- Most of your other comments don't apply either.