My point of view , from Europe, is that political violence is already there in the US. As well as state violence (not just on political opponents, but also on all minorities and "people who have a different opinion").
The next step is indeed a second civil war, with 21st century characteristics (hybrid war, etc...)
I am not enthusiastic about the near future for the US nor for the world.
If you fully understand the disbelief, you'd understand why you, being the one advancing the claim, should provide the source(s) you are using for your Bayesian priors so that, assuming those information sources are of sufficient quality, we can also have the benefit of your knowledge. Until then, it is only rational that people reject your claim.
I'm not sure what all that sophistry is about seeing as this is easily available information that anyone can find out about with literally 2 seconds of googling. Anyway heres a report from the bbc https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2r2ejlvm1o .
Ironically, if a civil war was going to happen it will be because Trump's overuse of the military. It is such an newbie African dictator mistake. Every time you use the military to put down civil unrest you give them an inch of your power and before you know it, they figure they don't need the regime anymore.
You will never see Putin outsourcing civilian tasks to the military.
If those things are true they all are seen small peanuts compared to the police state that is being developed in the U.S. with masked men pulling brown people of the street without identifying themselves and without due process.
Get your priorities straight.
To quote Niemöller:
First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a socialist.
Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a trade unionist.
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Jew.
Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.
That seems extremely unlikely given the significant global economic impact of tariffs, and the comparatively microscopic effect of transgender athletic participation in the United States.
For example, when Kentucky passed their trans sports ban in 2022, there was a grand total of one (1) transgender high school athlete in the state[0].
I mean, it's almost laughable to suggest that any of those things are even near comparable to the potential long-term impact of historically unprecedented tariffs being thoughtlessly tossed around on a whim.
They are related in the sense that stuff like violent crime by ethnic gangs and transgender affirmation of children easily rile up people to Trump or others who will bluntly oppose it, and then you end up with poorly designed tariffs.
It was largely a failure of anti tariff other candidates to capture these other 'easy wins' needed to get to the point of implementing sane economic policy.
40 years from now people will wonder why folk threw away all common sense to go on a lunatic rampage with a sledgehammer.
Instead of facing problems and solving them with due patience.
If the trend keeps on the next stage is political violence. And then it's a short fuse to a second civil war.
This is the point in time the US declined.