At Microsoft scale, common market rules no longer apply. What would you even call their "product" that someone could improve upon? It’s a giant maze of offerings, competing interests, corporate and government relations, revenue streams… hoping for someone to disrupt this due to better support is like hoping for a country to displace the United States for their superior social systems. It’s nonsensical, that’s not how global mega-corporations work.
Well... being lucky enough to negotiate a fairly liberal licensing agreement with a tech juggernaut as MS did with IBM for something as critical as the OS? Not likely.
AMD has been making chips literally for decades with investments in Billions. They had to spin their fab business off it was too expensive to keep up with. And even now, it's taken nearly a decade of competitive and leading products to make inroads, and even then they're still under 50% of x86 computers in use.
Linux has been around over 30 years, and is just now cracking 5% desktop market share. This happens while Windows has become less than 10% of Microsoft revenue, with well over a decade of "free" upgrades.
So, yeah, if you're able to get a company started... get billions invested... able to create compelling products without triggering literal mine-fields of IP and legislative restrictions... sure, you might be able to unseat a competitive mega corporation. But unlikely in anything resembling a lifetime measured in less than decades.