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My parents did psychology and they always warned us about this.

Bayesianism helps but isn't taught well enough in school. Basically, we fail to handle the false positive and false negatives into the calculation, and this happens a lot with psychologists as well. This is really the point where people say untrained 'professionals' are dangerous - they can't evaluate that inaccuracy of the diagnosis itself.

This is the best explanation I've seen so far: https://betterexplained.com/articles/an-intuitive-and-short-...



That's a good one. Some people might like the "odds" based version of Bayes' theorem: https://betterexplained.com/articles/understanding-bayes-the...




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