On: Project Aardvark: reimagining AI weather prediction

[klabb3]

> would be akin to how most humans see a ball in flight and just instinctively know (within reason) where the ball is going to go?

Generally no. If I show you a puddle of water, can you tell me what shape was the ice sculpture that it was melted from?

One is Newtonian motion and the other is a complex chaotic system with sparse measurements of ground truth. You can minimize error propagation but it’s a diminishing returns problem, (except in rare cases like for natural disasters where a 6h warning can make a difference).

[mnky9800n → klabb3]

While generally correct there has been evidence that machine learning models can predict multiple Lyapunov times past traditional models.

[1] https://link.aps.org/doi/10.1103/PhysRevLett.120.024102

[2] https://link.aps.org/doi/10.1103/PhysRevResearch.5.043252