Trump had no shot until the proposed tax changes in early 2023 and competition with Sequoia lead much of A16Z's leadership (and other VCs) to invest in Trump's campaign.
Before that, A16Z, other VCs, and tech leadership tended to donate equally to both parties.
As I've mentioned multiple times before, Dem leadership screwed the pooch by alienating tech leadership who coalesced around Obama while overinvesting in failed outreach to legacy unions like the UAW and ILU.
Musk has always been an unsavory character, but he only really flipped to Trump after the Biden admin alienated him to try and get UAW support [0] - and now the UAW who Biden and the Dems tried to poach are now fully behind Trump and the GOP [1]