A mistake. There is no true security from large powers without nukes. Ukraine shows this. Alliances with the USA aren't reliable or an adequate replacement.
Can you please provide insight into this? As far as I can tell the U.S. has never failed to honor a treaty obligation, so the idea that it would suddenly abandon all commitments lacks historical precedent.
Ukraine is not now nor has ever been an ally To America. The Budapest Memorandum was not a defense treaty. It didn’t commit the U.S. to military intervention, it only committed the U.S. to respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and take diplomatic action if it was threatened. We have done that with sanctions and aid.
It doesn't obligate us to do that into perpetuity nor does it keep us from being compensated for that aid. For perspective the price Britain paid for its survival in WW2 was its empire.
The USA is historically inclined to isolationism because of geography. The voters are now inclined to isolationism and the end of 'the brotherhood of nations' because of social media access, authoritarian agitprop, and failure of the American elites to keep the domestic situation comfortable and understandable. It will take a while before these trends reverse.
There is no point relying on an extractive, transactional, reluctant protector. The democracies of the world will have to arrange to engage in collective deterrence without the USA, because nothing is worse than having the rug pulled from under you at a critical time.
The way they characterize Taiwan as a completely separate entity from China that is yearning to breathe the sweet air of liberty is actually frightening. They do it without even thinking now.
Espionage knew TW was developing nukes, CIA informant merely confirmed for US, who had to coerce TW to stop because they knew TW nuclearizing was PRC redline, and TW would eat PRC nuke if it didn't stop. Just like how modern day TW is still thoroughly infiltrated by PRC, and any attempt at nuclearizing would get decapitation striked very hard (PRC ordnance can hit anywhere in TW in ~7m). Functionally TW hasn't been nuclear turnkey capable since PRC got their nukes and launch vehicles
No they wouldn't, because they're not absolute retards that conflates memes for reality. Context behind USSR meme is PRC warning US/TW against U2 overflights over mainland, all while trying to shoot them down... and eventually PRC shot down more U2s than USSR. Enough that U2 overflights stopped due to risk and had to rely on sats (CORONA). Of course USSR jokers didn't know this at the time. Or PRC "warning" preluded to border fighting with RU, India, against US+UN in Korea, threatened to invade HK if UK didn't handover, and covertly shot at French in IndoChina. All issues less important than TW. PRC the only actor who actively fought against every NPT nuclear state (i.e. hilariously/wrecklessly not deterred by nukes) , most while outguned and even not nuclear herself, which was prefaced by the actual "final" warning - the real one with specific verbiage (勿谓言之不预也 / "don't say I didn't warn you").
TLDR is PRC warns and does, it just couldn't do much before so generic warnings appeared toothless meme, but PRC was always doing / biting, especially after real "final" warning. Now it has much more teeth to do the biting, so TW even less likely to risk.
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