My take is that the second point is the models created by this crazy expensive training are just software, and software gets cheaper to operate by virtue of Moore's Law in an exponential fashion.
Third point, I think, is that the intelligent work that the models can do will increase exponentially because they get cheaper and cheaper to operate as the get more and more capable.
So I think GPT4.5 is in the short term more expensive (they have to pay their training bill) but eventually this being the new floor is just ratcheting toward the nerd singularity or whatever.
Moore's Law is a self-fulfilling prophecy derived from the value of computation.
If a given computation does not provide enough value, it might not be invested with enough resources to benefit from Moore's Law.
When scaling saturates, less computationally expensive models would benefit more.
Third point, I think, is that the intelligent work that the models can do will increase exponentially because they get cheaper and cheaper to operate as the get more and more capable.
So I think GPT4.5 is in the short term more expensive (they have to pay their training bill) but eventually this being the new floor is just ratcheting toward the nerd singularity or whatever.