Major amphibious operations take 4-6 months to plan and prepare if rushed. I cannot imagine the Chinese watching the feed from the White House without seeing it as a row of green lights blinking for them. The unholy alliance of tech companies and Russian astroturfing on their unregulated social media platforms has delivered a decapitation strike on Washington. The US government is rapidly severing long-standing alliances, and showing utter unwillingness to defend its strategic interests - all out of sheer incompetence, no less.
Find me a credible source then. I happen to be able to read and write Chinese as well, so don't limit yourself to English-language sources. I'm happy to be proven wrong. Everything I've found says that US intelligence thinks that Xi wants to invade by 2027 -- nothing directly from the Chinese government itself.
You might want to read this Defense News article (https://archive.vn/UNXdC), titled "How DC became obsessed with a potential 2027 Chinese invasion of Taiwan".
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"... according to an American official who later spoke to the press, Chinese leader Xi Jinping grew exasperated — not at the risk of war, but at the timeline.
“Xi basically said: ‘Look, I hear all these reports in the United States [of] how we’re planning for military action in 2027 or 2035,’” the official said.
“‘There are no such plans,’” Xi said in the official’s telling. “‘No one has talked to me about this.’”
That first year, 2027, is a fixation in Washington. It has impacted the debate over China policy — a shift from the long term to the short term. It’s also helped steer billions of dollars toward U.S. forces in the Pacific. And in the last several years, it’s been a question mark hanging over the Biden administration’s approach to the region.
According to U.S. intelligence, Xi has told the Chinese military it needs to be ready to invade Taiwan by that year. ...
This became the standard line across the administration — affirmed by Central Intelligence Agency Director Bill Burns.
“President Xi has instructed the PLA [People’s Liberation Army], the Chinese military leadership to be ready by 2027 to invade Taiwan. But that doesn’t mean that he’s decided to invade in 2027 or any other year as well,” Burns said during a TV interview in February 2023."
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> This comes directly from Xi's speeches at the People's National Congress
You might be referring to his 2022 speech, where a part of his speech was given the title "XII. Achieving the Centenary Goal of the People’s Liberation Army and Further Modernizing National Defense and the Military". (https://archive.vn/tSO65)
If you read its contents, you'd realise that he was talking about modernisation goals for the PLA, and not about invading Taiwan at all. All the information publicly available about Xi's supposed plans to invade Taiwan in/by 2027 comes from the US. While I do not doubt China's imperialistic ambitions, 1) there are many ways for the Chinese to achieve reunification with Taiwan without a military invasion; 2) the CIA has very little credibility.
Uhhh. I believe you have misread the post. The only thing I said was that an invasion was not imminent. And as you yourself are pointing out, they would not be ready for such a thing until 2027.
But I also don't see your point. "Don't believe the CIA, but do believe the Pentagon (according to this article), and also do believe China's propaganda minister". Clearly it's a thing the US Intelligence community disagrees on. But if Xi is saying China needs to be capable of having a massive sealift operation by 2027, arguing over whether it will actually happen or not is not actually relevant.
As a word of caution. Hitler denied plans for an invasion of France, as did the US for Iraq, or Putin for Ukraine - to give a variety of examples. If a dictator says ahead of time that they have a goal, we should not be surprised if they actually go for it.
Very likely. I interpreted your comment(s) to say that "The CCP said that they wanted to invade Taiwan by 2027", but my interpretation is seemingly wrong, and I ended up trying to address what I thought you said.
> we should not be surprised if they actually go for it.
Whether Xi invades Taiwan or not, I wouldn't be surprised either way. I'm not doubting at all that China has expansionist designs on Taiwan and the South China Sea. But there are many paths to reunification with Taiwan without starting a direct war. Why would China invade, when its leaders can clearly see that Russia, through strategic patience, bribery, and aggressive hybrid warfare, has finally won the Cold War without ever having to invade the US militarily?
Bribery is rampant among high-ranking military officers in Taiwan, for example. Many of them have been exposed to have sold classified information to the Chinese government for trifling amounts of money. China has also managed to poach a lot of former TSMC engineers to work at SMIC by offering generous salaries. Why take military action against Taiwan today (or in 2027) when China just has to be very, very patient, especially with Trump dragging the US into the realm of irrelevance?
All paths lead to Rome. China's war on Taiwan might be much more insidious and subtle than we expect.
