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What I did was to measure the difference in yield between uniformly generated ids that would correspond to the time after Snowflake (when ids were at 380M) and the ones before. It's true that the yield is less. It went down from about 86% to 82%.

A separate problem is that my estimate of the highest id at the time of the experiment likely fell short. Since then I've encountered higher ids that are pretty sparse, but I don't know how many there are.

Do you have any ideas as to how to generate a better sequence of random ids that tracks Twitter ids after Snowflake? I'd like to redo this experiment in a while.



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