As a generic rule, it's true that open source software increases the supply of software, which means that the value of software goes down.
The reason this doesn't really matter in a truly noticeable way, and why I'm also not really concerned about AI taking programming jobs, is that demand for software is so much higher than supply. You can go to any random local small business, and within five minutes, you will identify software demand that is not being met adequately, or at all. They use Excel for their inventory and constantly have problems with it that need to be manually resolved. Their website doesn't work right and nobody knows how to fix the broken links. They have somebody who does paychecks by hand. One person is in charge of scheduling holidays in a shared calendar. And so on.
These companies would pay developers to fix their issues if they could afford them. As programmers become more productive, whether that is by using open-source software instead of writing things manually, by using LLMs, or by other means, there is a downward pressure on salaries. But that doesn't mean that jobs disappear; it just means that more companies now have access to developers they could previously not afford.
We make less money doing some in-house processes for a small, local business than writing a database for a multinational corporation. But on the upside, we improve the lives of people who actually matter, rather than making some billionaire even richer.
The reason this doesn't really matter in a truly noticeable way, and why I'm also not really concerned about AI taking programming jobs, is that demand for software is so much higher than supply. You can go to any random local small business, and within five minutes, you will identify software demand that is not being met adequately, or at all. They use Excel for their inventory and constantly have problems with it that need to be manually resolved. Their website doesn't work right and nobody knows how to fix the broken links. They have somebody who does paychecks by hand. One person is in charge of scheduling holidays in a shared calendar. And so on.
These companies would pay developers to fix their issues if they could afford them. As programmers become more productive, whether that is by using open-source software instead of writing things manually, by using LLMs, or by other means, there is a downward pressure on salaries. But that doesn't mean that jobs disappear; it just means that more companies now have access to developers they could previously not afford.
We make less money doing some in-house processes for a small, local business than writing a database for a multinational corporation. But on the upside, we improve the lives of people who actually matter, rather than making some billionaire even richer.