That's the reaction some extreme Trump supporters I know had after 2020. They claimed there would never be another fair election because of the manipulation of the electronic voting machines
That is a complete false equivalence. What evidence was there of fraud in 2020? We are watching what Trump is doing and saying with our own eyes right now.
There were a bunch of people who are easily tricked who latched onto the election fraud claims by habitual liars. That doesn't make the claims true.
I really don't understand what you are trying to do other than distract.
I'm Canadian and don't technically have a dog in this race, but I do enjoy calling people out on convictions they present but deep down don't earnestly hold.
Would you be open to a $10,000 bet that the 2028 election is, as decided by unbiased international publications (BBC, Reuters, etc.), fair?
Obviously we're not actually going to make that bet personally, with each other, because a) we are random people on the internet, and setting up some sort of trustworthy bet/escrow system is more work than I want to get into, and b) I will likely forget about this subthread by tomorrow, but:
Yes, if there was some sort of prediction market around that, I would absolutely make that bet. My rationale:
Elections are run by each individual state, not by the federal government. The federal government certainly has the ability to set standards for those elections (and something like the SAVE Act, if passed, will disproportionately disenfranchise likely-Democrat voters), but election integrity is managed by the states. The states don't really have an incentive to mess with their elections. Deep blue and deep red states will get the outcome that likely-of-the-same-party election officials expect/want without the need for any meddling. Swing states generally have enough people in power from both parties that those elections are going to be watched very closely by people who will call out irregularities and provide actual evidence of such, if it truly exists.
The only thing I'm worried about is legal disenfranchisement, but it's unclear if anything new there that happens in the next 3.5 years could meaningfully swing an election.
Regardless, I am less worried about 2028 than I am about the mid-terms in 2026. Not worried election-integrity wise... just worried about the Democrats getting their shit together and retaking at least one of the houses of Congress (and if they can only take one, preferably the Senate, even though that will likely be the more difficult one, as usual).
If you're being honest about your position that 2028 won't be a fair election, I'm effectively offering you free money, right? There are loads of bet/escrow systems out there - I'd be happy to do all the facilitation myself.
I think most folks believe at this point the election itself will be fair. The real question is whether those in power will accept the election results or not.
That's not really the point, though. Elections for federal offices are run by the states. The Trumpers can complain all they want about voter fraud and vote manipulation, but if the evidence isn't there (which it almost certainly won't be), then it will be a fair and free election.
Obviously I would prefer if these morons on the right wouldn't fall for Trump's conspiracy bullshit, as democracy functions much better when everyone has faith in the integrity of elections. But as long as the elections are fair, that's still something in the "plus" column.
That's nothing like the current situation. Those claims were based on stupid conspiracy theories with no supporting evidence. Everyone can see what this administration is saying and doing. Trump is telling us that he doesn't respect laws or democracy, and is following that up with action.
