I think we'll see a lot larger scale adoption of heat pumps once they are re-engineered for dealing with 15F average winters (where heat pumps break even vs furnaces) that also go down to -25F for a week (where heat pumps use more energy or fail). But it's good to see small progress in using them in places where it only gets cold rarely and briefly.
Not being able to handle the full range of average and peak(valley?) temps means a lot more complexity that prevents adoption.
“Bosch, Carrier, Daikin, Johnson Controls, Lennox, Midea, Rheem, and Trane Technologies participated in the challenge. They successfully completed prototype testing at Oak Ridge National Laboratory and other facilities in 2022 and 2023, with some units operating at temperatures as low as –15°F (–26°C) while still meeting efficiency requirements. The companies then moved products into field testing in 23 residential sites located across 10 U.S. states and 2 Canadian provinces. In partnership with Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, each site gathered a full year of data. U.S. testing sites were in the Northeast, Midwest, and Mountain regions.
In the field, the residential CCHPs reliably provided heat with little assistance from auxiliary elements, even during the coldest winter periods.”
What hurts adoption here in NL from what I hear (from installers so grain of salt etc etc) is that there aren’t enough people to do installs and then later maintenance.
Having looked at getting a heat pump set up in our house (built in 1902) is that even with the extra insulation we put in, the energy needs of a heat pump are huge which means more electricity is needed and what with congestion happening locally is getting to be a problem to supply all houses with enough oomph to run heat pumps, electric stoves and charging EV’s.
Even with people having solar installations this remains a problem because we’ve had almost three consecutive weeks with heavy cloud cover and fog as well as hardly any wind. So renewable power generation was down across the board.
Fact of the matter is, we adopted many energy hungry solutions without providing the necessary capacity up front.
I worked at a startup (Jedlix) where we built a platform to optimise EV charging specifically to deal with these problems (demand shifting) but there are so many hurdles to get this rolled out at a large enough scale to matter.
Car OEMs don’t provide the necessary APIs, (local)grid companies won’t provide usage data necessary to steer on so billing/compensation becomes impossible removing the incentive for consumers.
It seems so obvious that this would solve a real problem but even though the technology exists it’s not going anywhere. Maddening
Also in NL and I work for a heat pump company - I don't know the specifics but for as long as I've worked here we've never not been hiring heat pump techs. (https://quatt.recruitee.com/)
I actually am hoping that better grid coördination could help a lot with the problem you describe, there's a few companies in the space but I can't think of big ones in NL. In the UK you have Octopus Energy which has effectively made a (virtual) power plant by managing individual assets.
Hey to all you NL people (we're in Den Haag) - I've been researching solar water heaters and they look really promising? I've read they even work in winter. Is that wishful thinking in a country like NL?
If there’s no sun you’re looking at a different energy source which typically means electricity so you’re back to the demand problem when the weather is poor regarding renewable power.
I can't really comment except that when I asked our installers about it they had the perception that solar water heating was "an 80's and 90's thing". I don't know much about it beyond that.
I guess you could look up the insolation values and do the math on how much water you use and how hot it needs to be.
Jedlix had been acquired by Octopus in fact and specifically for the virtual power plant tech + EV integration.
What’s more challenging is that when it comes to EV charging in cities not a lot of people actually have their own charging station and need to use public ones. That means they’re in use all the time and “throttling” them causes availability problems.
One of the challenges would be to get people to charge their cars during the day when there usually is a power surplus (especially with solar when the weather is decent) but that’s a behavioural change that takes time.
Another problem in a densely populated country like the Netherlands is noise pollution by heat pumps. One of my friends has been in a conflict with his neighbour over just that which has cost a lot of time and money and probably can not really be solved entirely as the law is written, the distances between houses and the noise signatures of heat pumps and whatever sound-dampening enclosure they are stuffed in don't meet. This is not a problem where I live (Sweden) since we have way more space and build less densely than in the Netherlands.
Is air-con just that rare? A heat-pump isn’t all that much complicated than a ducted air-con. Here in the US, most HVAC service companies can/will service all types (pure AC, heat pumps, various furnaces, etc).
Mean daily maximum in July and August in Utrecht is 23C/73F (compare to 30C/85F in Chicago and NYC). The Netherlands is further north and a lot more moderated by ocean temperatures - it's kind of like SF in that regard except the entire country has a similar climate so AC is not a cultural expectation.
We installed a heat pump last year (2024) when we decided our condensing gas furnace wasn't going to last that much longer. Various incentives paid for about 1/3rd of the cost, and we had insulation upgrades at the same time as well as replacement of an electric water heater by a heat pump water heater. Overall, we've been very pleased with the level of comfort and the economics.
This is near Ithaca NY, where the coldest month (January) has an average low of 18 F.
I'm definitely interested in heat pumps, but we also live up north - 12F average in January. Does it hold up well during polar vortexes, when you are below 0 for a few days?
We haven't experienced that yet. I think the lowest temperature we experienced since it was installed was -4 F one night. We didn't notice any problems.
The only issue I've seen is the large buildup of ice below the outside unit. The unit is elevated on legs for just this reason so it hasn't affected its operation. The ice is formed when the outside unit goes through its defrost cycle in cold weather; water dripping off freezes when it hits the ground.
I’m in DC and my childhood home and both homes I’ve owned have had heatpumps.
They all have back-up electric heat elements that kick on when the heat pump can’t keep up. In our mid-70s build home (mediocre insulation and windows), that happens somewhere in around 15F. Basically a few nights/month in Jan and Feb. I can see the bump in electric bill when we have an unusually cold winter.
But, overall it’s not a bad system. Most of the time, it works fine. The one downside (vs radiant heat) is it can feel drafty. But that’s going to be true of any forced-air heat.
Anyway, sounds like you’re right on the edge of where a heat pump might be suitable, so you’ll need to talk to a specialist (or at least somebody else who’s used one locally). They’ve come a long way in efficiency and if it’s a new home, the better insulation will help a bunch too.
Heat pump water heater - is that ducting the waste heat outside somehow? I’ve thought about them but not sure I want something dumping extra heat into my basement when it’s 100* outside here in DC metro.
No, it extracts heat from the air in the basement. It cools the surroundings (assuming one is using the hot water, not allowing all the heat there to eventually diffuse out through the insulation, but a resistive water heat faces that same issue without having caused any cooling first.)
But in winter, when I’m using more hot water, the heater is cooling a house I’m desperately trying to keep warm? Not sure that’s any better. Is the amount of cooling noticeable? We’re in a small (by US standards), mid-70s home - it’s already next to impossible to keep the basement warm enough to use in January.
We had a gas furnace but an electric water heater. Last month we paid $0.196/kWh (including distribution charges, supply charges, taxes, and various minor fees.) Better than CA, worse than TX. Average power use over January was a shade over 4 kW.
Lowest temperature so far this winter has been -21°F and my Haier Arctic heat pumps kept going (although I concede it was only lower than -15°F for a few hours in the early morning while I was asleep). As for costs, they're pretty much on par with oil currently but my house isn't yet adequately insulated.
I suspect once I have sufficient insulation and air sealing, and condensing gas hydronic heat for when the exterior temperature drops below 5°F (COP 2.0) the overall system will be very cost effective month to month. Although the upfront cost is nontrivial, so it's a payback period measured in decades.
I also augment with a wood burning stove.
For new construction that's properly air sealed and insulated, heat pumps with resistive baseboard backup would probably be sufficient.
Heat pumps are used extensively in Scandinavia, including up in the polar circle. These are usually ground source heat pumps, which is the essentially the same pump technology but connected to an in-ground loop instead of taking heat from outside air.
Nowadays the air con uses the same heat pump to extract heat from the house and pump it into the ground, which not only chills the house but also helps a little recharging the ground source.
Ground source heat pumps install cost is very high when used in cold areas because of the frost depth caused excavation costs; significantly higher than the cost of the heat pump unit and parts themselves. It can be good if that disproportional initial cost is paid. But it's not the same class of purchase. This cost is reflected in the lack of demand and so lack of (solvent) installers.
If the big initial cost is rolled into home construction it would be less daunting and more normal. So I expect newer homes to adopt heat pumps in cold areas but with little adoption in existing homes.
News to me. But probably similarly expensive once the environmental regulations for wells, etc, and it's excavation are considered. And even fewer installers who are qualified to do it.
Yes, ground sourced is an excellent option, and I would also consider it for new construction in my area (Northern New England, US). The problem is finding installers that can do it.
I had a large house that was heated by electric and wood and replaced them with a ground source heat pump with a loop zigzagging under my lawn. Relatively expensive to install but paid for itself in 5 years.
For exact reason I want heat pump (i mean these ones with 60C temperature output), but my range starts from -5C (23F), where efficiency starts to drop. As for connecting to house heating system with furnace using mini-split is just few pipes and one or two valve away. Is not hard to have big note, reminding following: "light furnace - close valve a, use heat-pump open valve a and close valve b"
Main problem is price... The air-water heat pump which looks match my house something from 4000-4500€ and I living in small house. Yes there is government assistance, but main requirement is to remove (to wall up) chimney and remove burning stove... which during cold winter will rake costs to insane numbers.
This is only for air source pumps, right? My furnace will probably outlive me so this is a more theoretical discussion but my plan has been to get a ground source pump if it ever breaks.
The physics don't change but the ground never goes to -25F. So yes, after paying for digging (unless you have a deep pond), well designed geothermal remains efficient regardless of season. It is seen as the most efficient option, especial in more extreme environments.
Heat pumps are quite prevalent here in Norway, where we regularly see -5F or lower.
I got one and while this winter has been mild, not much below 15F so far, last winter we had couple of weeks below -5F and we had a nice 73F indoor without issues.
And to be frank I don't care if it's less efficient couple of weeks during winter if it's more efficient the remaining 50 weeks.
Bonus points is that it can keep us cool during summer, unlike a furnace or heating panels.
Not being able to handle the full range of average and peak(valley?) temps means a lot more complexity that prevents adoption.