I don't really think it will choke the supply, but only reduce in capacity in short term, for example TSMC Arizona[1] took 4 years to be in produciton. Intel's process is still acceptable and better than China.
Also semiconductor is very complicated manufacturing process not only invovles Taiwan but vendors all over the world, like the light source of EUV is provided by Cymer based in U.S. I don't think China taking over Taiwan would mean they can transfer whatever is there into something productive in any short time as because of supply chain problem. Note that many SMIC's (basically China's TSMC) leadership are actually from TSMC already[2].
Also semiconductor is very complicated manufacturing process not only invovles Taiwan but vendors all over the world, like the light source of EUV is provided by Cymer based in U.S. I don't think China taking over Taiwan would mean they can transfer whatever is there into something productive in any short time as because of supply chain problem. Note that many SMIC's (basically China's TSMC) leadership are actually from TSMC already[2].
[1]https://www.tsmc.com/static/abouttsmcaz/index.htm [2]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liang_Mong_Song